Conference USA
Still In the Hunt: FIU, Middle Tennessee, Marshall, Charlotte, FAU, UAB, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, UTSA, Southern Mississippi
Elimination Mode: Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, UTEP, Rice
CUSA is probably still the most open conference in the nation as we sit in mid-October. With 10 teams still in the race, there is plenty of elimination football left to be played. Let's look at the candidates:
FIU: 2018 was supposed to be a rebuilding season for Butch Davis, but it has been anything but. The Panthers sit in the lead spot in the East Division by a half game over Middle Tennessee, who they have already beaten. The Panther should cruise over Rice and Western Kentucky the next two weeks, and they can hope that they can get some distance in the race, as they get 4 current contenders over the last month of the season.
Middle Tennessee: The Blue Raiders now need some help to claim the division after having lost to FIU. The Blue Raiders are on half game back of the Panthers this week after losing to FIU 24-21. MT needs a 2 losses by the Panthers to have a shot at the division, and they also would need to win out in that scenario. Charlotte is on the slate this weekend, and the Blue Raiders get 3 weeks worth of cupcake games in conference against Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, and UTEP, after taking on Charlotte this week. UAB is the game in the season finale, and the Blue Raiders likely will not be favored in that match.
Marshall: The thundering Herd has not yet played FIU, and will meet the Panthers in the season finale. They have already lost to Middle Tennessee, however, and that creates some issues, as Marshall would need to win out with one more Middle Tennessee loss, and would need to then beat FIU in that finale game to claim the division. That is not a tall task to ask for, but Marshall has to get through a 3 week stretch with games against FAU, Southern Miss, and Charlotte. That run begins this weekend.
Charlotte: Nobody still expected the 49ers to be in the race at this point, but here they are. They seem to have the longest odds against hanging around to win the East at this point. They get Middle Tennessee this week, and every game they play in conference from here out would be against a current contender for the CUSA title. That is a lot to ask for, especially for the fact that they have not yet played anyone in contention in their own division. They also have to play at Tennessee in non con action on 11/3, but that matters not for this conversation.
FAU: The Owls have been a massive disappointment this fall, and simply have no lived up to expectations in or out of conference play. Still, they have just one loss in two games played in CUSA action, and that keeps them in it, for now. FAU has a loss to Middle Tennessee already, and 4 of their final 5 games are against current contenders. There are no breaks remaining. The Owls have to heat up now, or this run ends early.
UAB: Bill Clark is doing another amazing job in Birmingham, and the Blazers have placed themselves in position as the favorites in the West now, after they beat Louisiana Tech, who beat North Texas. UAB is 3-0 in conference play, and they have beaten the Bulldogs and Charlotte already. If they can beat North Texas this weekend, there may be no looking back in the West race for the Blazers this season. UAB should be favored in 4 of their final 5 games this season, with a trip to Texas A&M being the exception.
Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs set themselves up as the front runner in the West by beating North Texas, but then fell back by getting hammered by UAB. Now Tech needs the Blazers to lose 2 games in conference play, and as of now, they would need to win out in conference play to regain the top spot in the West. The Bulldogs should cruise against UTEP this week, but they get a trip to FAU next week, followed by a non con game against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs should be favored in their final 3 games, but a trip to Southern Miss on 11/17 should be tricky to navigate.
North Texas: The Eagles had a stumble fest the last few weeks before flying high again in a win over Southern Miss. They still remain in the chase, but they need some help in the form of first beating UAB this week, and then by having Louisiana Tech drop two games in conference play moving forward. The loss to the Bulldogs is still their lone loss this season. UNT is clearly a favorite after this week in all games, but they still have FAU coming up at home on 11/15. Of course a loss to UAB this week could make matters moot.
UTSA: I do not see the Roadrunners staying in this race for very long moving forward. Their 3 wins came against some of the worst teams in the league and in college football, and I simply do not see a game they will, or should be, favored to win for the rest of the season. The Grinder is in full effect the rest of the way.
Southern Mississippi: The Eagles have some tough games moving forward, but should beat UTSA this week at home, and should be favored at Charlotte next week. Marshall, UAB, and Louisiana Tech all follow after that, and that run will decide if USM sticks around or not. It's a very long shot for them at this point. They do, however, wrap up against UTEP, which should be a win in the end. Getting to a bowl, with this schedule, should be the goal here.
Coaches On the Hot Seat: Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee; Mike Sanford, Jr., Western Kentucky; Bobby Wilder, Old Dominion
Top Week 8 Games: FAU at Marshall, Charlotte at Middle Tennessee, UTSA at Southern Miss, North Texas at UAB
Bowl Eligible: North Texas
Becomes Bowl Eligible With Next Win: UAB
Bowl Ineligible: None
Becomes Bowl Ineligible With Next Loss: Old Dominion, UTEP, Rice
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