Friday, January 11, 2019

State of College Football: Alabama Crimson Tide 2019

Alabama Crimson Tide 2019 Look Ahead

Final 2018 PRS Ranking: #2

Alabama coasted in 2018, but how much of it had to do with a soft schedule that never really challenged a talented bunch with a coaching staff that was about to completely come apart in and after the national championship game? The truth is that this team was not challenged until the final month, and almost lost to a very good Georgia team in the SEC title game before getting it together and coming back to win late. The Tide also failed to cover in an impressive spread in the Orange Bowl against Oklahoma, as they allowed the Sooners to hang around late, while never truly being in jeopardy of losing. Then came the championship disaster against Clemson, where the Tide's inefficient defense crumbled for the final 3 quarters of an absolute onslaught, where the staff was outplayed and out coached from the starting whistle. There will be major shakeups in the staff, especially on the offensive side of the football, and while Clemson has maintained stability, Alabama is starting to show signs of breakage, with a does of staff instability and mayhem.

Quarterbacks
Tua Tagavailoa will be back, but the fallback option of Jalen Hurts will not be there when Tua gets banged up, or when the Tide has a huge lead at the end of 3 quarters, which was a usual thing this fall. Tagavailoa had a stellar season, when he passed for 3966 yards with 43 scores and 6 INTs. There was a lot of blow back when he failed to lure in the Heisman, but the reality is that Kyler Murray added a whole dimension as a runner, with similar passing numbers, that Tua did not generate. It really was not that big a deal, or at least not as it was made out to be. That did not remove the fact that Tua was simply terrific all season long, and Tide fans can rejoice the fact that he returns, hopefully healthy, in 2019, for one more year of duty before likely heading off early to the NFL. Jalen Hurts will be transferring, so the backup situation is not as clear, and will have to be ironed out in spring and fall camps. Mac Jones likely gets first dibs on the job, but he was not exactly overwhelmingly terrific in his rare chances in 2018 as a freshman. There will be a likely competition for the backup role upcoming.

Running Backs
The herd will be thinned out a bit in 2019, as the top 2 rushers on the 2 deep will not be back in Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs. Fear not, however, as the Tide is fairly deep in talent at this spot, with Najee Harris (783 yards, 6.69 yards per carry) and Brian Robinson (272 yards) both returning. Jerome Ford is also back as a sophomore and will be looking for more work next fall. Look for incoming freshmen Keilen Robinson and Trey Sanders (5 star) to have some say in the rotation as well.

Receivers
The Tide will be fairly loaded at the receiver spots next fall, as all of the major components are slated to return, led by the phenomenal Jerry Jeudy, who posted a line of 68-1315-14, and averaged 19.34 yards per catch. Jaylen Waddle was severely underrated as a freshman, and posted a line of 45-848-7, and averaged 18.84 yards per catch as a freshman. Henry Ruggs and DeVonta Smith will both be juniors, and burned up the field to a tune of 88 combined catches with 17 more combined scores. Tyrell Shavers and Cahdarius Townsend will be looking to crack the rotation as well next fall, as both will be RS sophomores.
TE Irv Smith is leaving early for the NFL, which will sting a bit, as he caught 44 passes this season. Hale Hentges, who caught an important pass in the title game, will also be moving on. Miller Forrestall and Major Tennison will both be juniors next fall, and seem to fit as the next men up. Incoming 4 star freshman Jahleel Billingsley will likely be in the competition as well.

Offensive Line
Three starters will need to be replaced now that Jonah Williams (LT) has announced his intent to leave early for the NFL. Lester Cotton (LG) and Ross Pierschbacher (C) were both seniors in 2018. RG Alex Leatherwood and RT Jedrick Wills will both be juniors next fall, and are expected to maintain their starting jobs. Scott Lashley and Chris Owens return from the 3 deep at LT, while Emil Ekiyor looks to be the next man up at LG, and will be a sophomore next fall. Owens and Ekiyor are both in the mix at C as well. The Tide needs to find new backup help at RG, while Richie Petitbon should be back as a RS senior to back up at RT.
Three freshmen are coming in at the OT spot, while two new guards were signed as well.

Defensive Line
The Tide will likely be back running their 3-4 set again next fall, which means that they have to replace 2/3 of their starting lineup after Quinnen Williams declared for the draft, and Isaiah Buggs graduated. That's 33 TFLs in production gone from the 2018 team alone. LaBryan Ray looks to take over for Buggs, and recorded 6 TFLs as a reserve in 2018. Phidarian Mathis, a RS sophomore in 2019, may very well replace Williams at NT, but he is not on the same level thus far. Some good news did come at DE this winter, as Raekwon Davis announced that he would return for his final season.
Finding some depth along the line will be a major task in 2019, as several backups will move into starting roles, and that leaves a void of experience on the bench.
There is young talent coming in at DE, as seven ends were signed to bring some depth to the unit. The group now just needs some experience.

Linebacker
The Tide loses Christian Miller and his promary backup in the title game in James Mosley at SAM, and that will take some work to plug the hole. Eyabi Anoma was the 3rd man on the depth chart, and is first man up for the job. He totaled just 9 tackles in 2018.
Mack Wilson is back to start at MIKE, and totaled 71 tackles on the season. Joshua McMillon and Markail Benton are back as the primary backups in the middle, and they combined for 28 tackles on the season. The middle of the defense should be more than set.
Dylan Moses returns as the starter at WILL, and he led the team with 86 tackles on the season. His primary reserve also returns in Ale Kaho, who wrapped 2018 with 11 tackles off the bench.
Anfernee Jennings totaled 50 tackles on the season, and is projected to return to his starting job at JACK. James Mosley was listed as his primary backup, but Cameron Latu, who will be a sophomore, returns to get in more work in the rotation at this spot next fall. He played in just 2 games during the 2018 season, and will need some reps to get experience in camp.
Two new signees will be in camp at the inside spots as well.

Secondary
The secondary had some moments in 2018, but could stand some improvement, as was shown in the title game loss. Saivion Smith and Patrick Surtain II are both back at the CB spots, and depth is solid with the returns of Josh Jobe and Nigel Knott. This group was talented, but mostly young in 2018, and should improve with age next fall. Four signees should add some depth to the pool as well.
Xavier McKinney will be a junior next fall, and returns as the starting SS, while Deionte Thompson is back at FS as a RS senior, or is thus far projected to return. Shyheim Carter is also projected back for his senior season both as the backup at SS and as the Nickel at the STAR position. Jared Mayden and Keaton Anderson are also projected back as key backups at the Safety spots as seniors next fall.
Two new safeties are expected in camp as freshmen as well, giving the Tide one of the deepest secondaries in the nation in 2019.

Special Teams
Joseph Bulovas is back at PK after hitting 14/18 FG attempts as a freshman. He is expected to show some improvement next fall. His return did not stop the staff from recruiting another kicker in Will Reichard, a 3 star recruit from Hoover.
The Tide struggled at Punter this fall, with neither Mike Bernier nor Skyler DeLong averaging near 40 yards per punt. Bernier is gone, and DeLong returns. The staff did not address this situation in the recruiting class.
Jacobs was the primary KR man, and will need replacing. Robinson, Ruggs, and Najee Harris will vie for the role in spring and fall camps.
Waddle likely handles PR duty again next fall after averaging a whopping 14.56 yards per return with one score.

Non Conference Schedule
Criticism should continue on this front, as Alabama takes on another platter of cupcakes out of conference once again. Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss, and a late season tilt with FCS member Western Carolina lines the easy road schedule once again, and once again, Alabama will not be playing a true road game out of conference. Cupcakes, cupcakes, and more cupcakes.

2019 Projection
Despite large scale staff turnover, and some questions here and there on both lines, the Tide really should not be challenged much once again, especially due to their overall very weak schedule. As much as I hate to say it, with this very inadequate championship system we are forced to deal with, it would not be surprising to see Alabama right back in the title game against Clemson once again in 2019.

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