2019 Projected Win Totals: ACC

2019 Spring football camps are upon us in many parts of the country, despite the 2018 season ending just under 2 months ago. With that in mind, I will provide you with my projected win totals for each team in the ACC from top to bottom, with Clemson, of course, still being a clear cut favorite in what is otherwise a fairly muddled league. Here are our projections, in alphabetical order:

Boston College
2018 Wins: 7

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 Virginia Tech...Projected Loss
9/7 Richmond...Projected Win
9/13 Kansas...Projected Win
9/21 at Rutgers...Projected Win
9/28 Wake Forest...Projected Win
10/5 at Louisville...Projected Win
10/19 NC State..Projected Loss
10/26 at Clemson...Projected Loss
11/2 at Syracuse...Projected Loss
11/9 Florida State...Projected Loss
11/23 at Notre Dame...Projected Loss
11/30 at Pittsburgh...Projected Loss

Projected Win Total: 5
Comments: Boston College could very well trend as they did in 2018, as they streaked early and flamed out late. The final 6 games are fairly tough, with 4 of the 6 games coming on the road. Winning just one of those games I have projected as a loss gets them back to a bowl, but where will that win come?

Clemson
2018 Wins: 15

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/29 Georgia Tech...Projected Win
9/7 Texas A&M...Projected Win
9/14 at Syracuse...Projected Win
9/21 Charlotte...Projected Win
9/28 at North Carolina...Projected Win
10/12 Florida State...Projected Win
10/19 at Louisville...Projected Win
10/26 Boston College...Projected Win
11/2 Wofford...Projected Win
11/9 at NC State...Projected Win
11/16 Wake Forest...Projected Win
11/30 at South Carolina...Projected Win

Projected Win Total: 12
Comments: The non con portion of the schedule is fairly easy, with only Texas A&M there to provide a threat, much as they did last fall. I still see the Tigers getting away from the Aggies with another win. Clemson is also normally susceptible to a trap in conference play, but looking at how the ACC stacks up, I currently fail to see where that trap exists for them in 2019.

Duke
2018 Wins: 8

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 Alabama @ Atlanta...Projected Loss
9/7 North Carolina A&T...Projected Win
9/14 at Middle Tennessee...Projected Win
9/27 at Virginia Tech...Projected Loss
10/5 Pittsburgh...Projected Loss
10/12 Georgia Tech...Projected Win
10/19 at Virginia...Projected Loss
10/26 at North Carolina...Projected Win
11/9 Notre Dame...Projected Loss
11/16 Syracuse...Projected Loss
11/23 at Wake Forest...Projected Loss
11/30 Miami...Projected Loss

Projected Wins: 4
Comments: I can see a bit of a rebuilding year for Duke coming up, especially at the QB position, which is huge for the Blue Devils. Games against Middle Tennessee and even North Carolina A&T are tougher than they look as well, although I project wins there. Games against Pitt, Virginia, Syracuse, and Wake Forest are all games that are winnable, even of the Devils may not be favored at this time. There is opportunity for a win swing, but Duke will have to win some games that they aren't supposed to for that to occur.

Florida State
2018 Wins: 5

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 Boise State @Jacksonville...Projected Win
9/7 ULM...Projected Win
9/14 at Virginia...Projected Win
9/21 Louisville...Projected Win
9/28 NC State...Projected Win
10/12 at Clemson...Projected Loss
10/19 at Wake Forest...Projected Loss
10/26 Syracuse...Projected Win
11/2 Miami...Projected Win
11/9 at Boston College...Projected Win
11/16 Alabama State...Projected Win
11/30 at Florida...Projected Loss

Projected Wins: 9
Comments: I have absolutely no reason to not expect serious improvement in year two under Willie Taggart and his staff, and Taggart's resume shows that he has always shown strong improvements over time at every stop he has made, with exception of Oregon, where he spent just one season. The non con schedule is cream puff city, with a slightly rebuilding Boise State as the lone exception, and of course, the Florida game. Boise State should still come as a solid win for the Seminoles. The conference schedule is loaded with winnable games, but the Wake Forest game reads as a trap on the road. This should be a much better season for FSU.

Georgia Tech
2018 Wins: 7

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/29 at Clemson...Projected Loss
9/7 USF...Projected Win
9/14 Citadel...Projected Win
9/28 at Temple...Projected Win
10/5 North Carolina...Projected Win
10/12 at Duke...Projected Loss
10/19 at Miami...Projected Loss
11/2 Pittsburgh...Projected Loss
11/9 at Virginia...Projected Loss
11/16 Virginia Tech...Projected Loss
11/21 NC State...Projected Loss
11/30 Georgia...Projected Loss

Projected Wins: 4
Comments: Georgia Tech is rebuilding and re-branding under Geoff Collins, who was at Temple last season. The triple option is being scrapped, but expect elements of it to still exist as the program changes over personnel over the next couple of seasons to reflect the new system. The Yellow Jackets could pick up a couple of additional wins in toss up games against Duke and Pitt, but a trip up loss in non con action against USF could prove to be problematic later. Temple is projected as a win, but could swing easily to a loss as well.

Louisville
2018 Wins: 2

2019 Schedule With Projections
9/2 Notre Dame...Projected Loss
9/7 Eastern Kentucky...Projected Win
9/14 Western Kentucky...Projected Win
9/21 at Florida State...Projected Loss
10/5 Boston College...Projected Loss
10/12 at Wake Forest...Projected Loss
10/19 Clemson...Projected Loss
10/26 Virginia...Projected Loss
11/9 at Miami...Projected Loss
11/16 at NC State...Projected Loss
11/23 Syracuse...Projected Loss
11/30 at Kentucky...Projected Loss

Projected Wins: 2
Comments: Don't expect much from year one of the Scott Satterfield era at Louisville. The roster must be completely refurbished, and it will take time to get all of the damage of Bobby Petrino part two undone. We should be looking for minute improvements throughout the season, and development as well, but otherwise, this could be a lost year when it comes to winning.

Miami
2018 Wins: 7

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 Florida @ Orlando...Projected Loss
9/7 at North Carolina...Projected Win
9/14 Bethune-Cookman...Projected Win
9/21 Central Michigan...Projected Win
10/5 Virginia Tech...Projected Loss
10/11 Virginia...Projected Win
10/19 Georgia Tech...Projected Win
10/26 at Pittsburgh...Projected Win
11/2 at Florida State..,Projected Loss
11/9 Louisville...Projected Win
11/23 at FIU...Projected Win
11/30 at Duke...Projected Win

Projected Wins: 9
Comments: Miami could be a very uneven team in 2019, as Manny Diaz takes over after the surprising resignation of Mark Richt after just 2 seasons. The first month sets up nicely for a hot start, but then comes swing games against Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Pitt in October. A strong finish is in order, with few trap games in November. Still, projected wins against Virginia, Pitt, and Duke could all be games that could go sideways. A lot of this will also depend on Tate Martell winning the QB job, and performing well, as Miami has been struggling mightily at the position in recent years.

NC State
2018 Wins: 9

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 East Carolina...Projected Win
9/7 Western Carolina...Projected Win
9/14 at West Virginia...Projected Win
9/21 Ball State...Projected Win
9/28 at Florida State...Projected Loss
10/10 Syracuse...Projected Win
10/19 at Boston College...Projected Win
11/2 at Wake Forest...Projected Loss
11/9 Clemson...Projected Loss
11/16 Louisville...Projected Win
11/21 at Georgia Tech...Projected Win
11/30 North Carolina...Projected Win

Projected Wins: 9
Comments: The Pack is another team that looks like they may be looking at a step back, but the schedule affords opportunities to win regardless of that fact. A very easy non con slate provides only a challenge at a rebuilding West Virginia team, and that could be the only non con trap available to challenge this team. Conference play is loaded with winnable games, but wins against Syracuse and Boston College could come with more difficulty, and can be categorized as swing games to watch.

North Carolina
2018 Wins: 2

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 South Carolina @ Charlotte...Projected Loss
9/7 Miami,,,Projected Loss
9/12 at Wake Forest...Projected Loss
9/21 Appalachian State...Projected Loss
9/28 Clemson...Projected Loss
10/5 at Georgia Tech...Projected Loss
10/19 at Virginia Tech...Projected Loss
10/26 Duke...Projected Loss
11/2 Virginia...Projected Loss
11/14 at Pittsburgh...Projected Loss
11/23 Mercer...Projected Win
11/30 11/30 at NC State...Projected Loss

Projected Wins: 1
Comments: It's going to be a long first season for Mack Brown in his return to UNC. The FCS game against Mercer is the only game I can project as a sure win. There could be opportunities against Duke and Virginia, and the Pitt game could possible be a swing game as well, but they will be in uphill battles in all three of those contests.

Pittsburgh
2018 Wins: 7

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 Virginia...Projected Win
9/7 Ohio...Projected Win
9/14 at Penn State...Projected Loss
9/21 UCF...Projected Loss
9/28 Delaware...Projected Win
10/5 at Duke...Projected Win
10/18 at Syracuse...Projected Loss
10/26 Miami...Projected Loss
11/2 at Georgia Tech...Projected Win
11/14 North Carolina...Projected Win
11/23 at Virginia Tech...Projected Loss
11/30 Boston College...Projected Win

Projected Wins: 7
Comments: The Panthers are an interesting team for 2019, as even though I have them projected for 7 wins, they could easily win 9 or 10. Penn State is not a guaranteed loss, even on the road, and the UCF game is actually a swing game, based n play without McKenzie Milton at QB. The Syracuse game is also a swing contest, as is Miami. Things could go anywhere from 7 to 10 wins, or the roof could cave in and the Panthers could fail to meet expectations all around. It should be a wild ride with the Panthers in 2019.

Syracuse
2018 Wins: 10

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 at Liberty...Projected Win
9/7 at Maryland...Projected Win
9/14 Clemson...Projected Loss
9/21 Western Michigan...Projected Win
9/28 Holy Cross...Projected Win
10/10 at NC State...Projected Loss
10/18 Pittsburgh...Projected Win
10/26 at Florida State...Projected Loss
11/2 Boston College...Projected Win
11/16 at Duke...Projected Win
11/23 at Louisville...Projected Win
11/30 Wake Forest...Projected Loss

Projected Wins: 8
Comments: Syracuse exceeded all expectations last season by winning 10 games (including a bowl win over West Virginia). It's not unreasonable to have high expectations once again, but there is also the school of thought that the Orange could slip back a bit without Eric Dungy at QB this season. The NC State game is a swing game as a projected loss, as is the game against Pitt as a win. Boston College could be a swing as well, as could be Duke in Durham. Wake Forest, in the season finale, also projects as a swing game that could go either way.

Virginia
2018 Wins: 8

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 at Pittsburgh...Projected Loss
9/6 William & Mary...Projected Win
9/14 Florida State...Projected Loss
9/21 Old Dominion...Projected Win
9/28 at Notre Dame...Projected Loss
10/11 at Miami...Projected Loss
10/19 Duke...Projected Win
10/26 at Louisville...Projected Win
11/2 at North Carolina...Projected Win
11/9 Georgia Tech...Projected Win
11/23 Liberty...Projected Win
11/29 Virginia Tech...Projected Loss

Projected Wins: 7
Comments: Of the games I have projected as losses, games against Pitt and Miami project as swing games that can go either way, which could increase the win total with some luck to 9. Projected wins that are swing games come against Duke, Georgia Tech, and what should be an upset minded Liberty team. We are looking at a range of anywhere from 5 to 9 wins for the Cavaliers in 2019.

Virginia Tech
2018 Wins: 6

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/31 Boston College...Projected Win
9/7 Old Dominion...Projected Win
9/14 Furman...Projected Win
9/27 Duke...Projected Win
10/5 at Miami...Projected Win
10/12 Rhode Island...Projected Win
10/19 North Carolina...Projected Win
11/2 at Notre Dame...Projected Loss
11/9 Wake Forest...Projected Win
11/16 at Georgia Tech...Projected Win
11/23 Pittsburgh...Projected Win
11/29 at Virginia...Projected Win

Projected Wins: 11
Comments: This is a very high total for the Hokies, especially coming off of a tough 2018 season, but the Hokies could be a huge story this season in the ACC, and the schedule is incredibly forgiving, especially early. The conference schedule is built for success, as is a very easy non con schedule. Swing games are coming against Boston College, Duke, Miami, and Wake Forest, however, so we are looking at a wide range of wins, from 7 to 11. Still, I expect a huge bounce back from Virginia Tech in 2019.

Wake Forest
2018 Wins: 7

2019 Schedule With Projections
8/30 Utah State...Projected Loss
9/7 at Rice...Projected Win
9/12 North Carolina...Projected Win
9/21 Elon...Projected Win
9/28 at Boston College...Projected Loss
10/12 Louisville...Projected Win
10/19 Florida State...Projected Loss
11/2 NC State...Projected Win
11/9 at Virginia Tech...Projected Loss
11/16 at Clemson...Projected Loss
11/23 Duke...Projected Win
11/30 at Syracuse...Projected Win

Projected Wins: 7
Comments: Wake Forest is usually an uneven team that you tend to avoid at all costs at the sportsbook. The win when the should lose, and lose when they should win. Swing games should come against Utah State, Boston College, NC State, Duke, and Syracuse. I project a current range of anywhere between 4 and 8 wins.