Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Quality Win Index: Edition 1

After last season, I announced that I would be launching a new ranking system, which would interact with our current PRS Rankings for FBS Football. I am launching our QWI (Quality Wins Index) tonight. What this system does is grade teams wins and losses in a formulaic system. This system grades out quality of not only wins, but also quality of losses, to give you a true look at what a teams strength of schedule actually looks like at the time that these games are played, month to month. There are point values for wins against both Power Five, and Group of Five schools, and a minimal reward for playing against FCS schools. There are point totals that value wins over ranked opponents at the time of game played over games against non-ranked opponents. Moving forward, these rankings will be posted at the end of each month. These rankings do not interfere with our current PRS ranking, but lined up side by side, will show the true quality of every team by the end of the season. Enjoy the new Quality Wins Index, and of course feel free to comment here or on Twitter where I can be reached by tweeting @BiloFootball.

Schools Points
Notre Dame 66
Ole Miss 63
Utah  62
Texas A&M  61
LSU 58
Georgia  56
Northwestern  55
Michigan State 54
Florida  54
TCU 52
California  52
Ohio State  51
Iowa   51
Memphis  48
Toledo 48
Oklahoma State 48
NC State 47
Oklahoma   44
Florida State  42
Indiana 41
Baylor 39
West Virginia  39
Clemson 37
Temple  36
Miami  36
Alabama 36
Houston 36
Kentucky  34
Duke 34
Stanford 33
Michigan   32
Navy 31
Kansas State 30
USC 30
Wisconsin 28
Boise State 28
Texas Tech 26
Mississippi State 26
Syracuse 24
Western Kentucky  24
Arizona 22
North Carolina 20
Minnesota 20
Boston College 18
Penn State 18
Ohio  15
Illinois 15
Colorado State  15
Missouri 13
Marshall  13
Georgia Southern 13
Colorado   12
Air Force 11
Tulsa 10
Appalachian State 9
Pittsburgh 1
Georgia Tech 0
Bowling Green 0
Middle Tennessee -1
South Carolina  -2
Tennessee -3
Hawaii  -3
Auburn  -3
Washington State -4
Oregon -5
Virginia Tech -6
Ball State -6
Rutgers -6
Northern Illinois -7
Nevada -7
Akron -8
Washington -10
Rice -11
Arizona State -11
Oregon State -11
Southern Mississippi -12
Nebraska -12
Wake Forest -13
FIU  -15
Louisiana Tech -15
U Conn -16
East Carolina  -16
Buffalo  -17
UL-Monroe -17
New Mexico  -17
San Jose State -18
USF -20
Cincinnati -21
UTEP -21
South Alabama -22
Maryland -22
Utah State -22
Georgia State -23
Old Dominion -24
Tulane -25
Texas -27
Troy -27
Iowa State -29
UL-Lafayette -30
Charlotte -31
Louisville -32
Vanderbilt -33
Arkansas  -33
Virginia -34
Central Michigan -36
Western Michigan -37
UNLV -38
Arkansas State -41
Fresno State -42
SMU -43
San Diego State -45
Kent State -46
Texas State -50
U Mass -51
Eastern Michigan -52
Purdue -52
Idaho -53
Army -53
Miami (Ohio)  -58
New Mexico State -59
North Texas -61
UTSA  -68
Kansas   -69
FAU  -79
UCF -83
Wyoming -89

Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

We enter week five having made progress, as I managed to make up 8 games in my deficit for the season. I am now 90-91-5 on the season. Here are my week 5 picks ATS:

Line Pick
Miami -6.5 Cincinnati Miami
Memphis -9 USF Memphis
Temple -23.5 Charlotte Temple
BYU -17.5 U Conn BYU
Georgia Tech -7.5 North Carolina UNC
Penn State -24.5 Army PSU
Bowling Green -9 Buffalo BGSU
Toledo -6.5 Ball State Toledo
Appaalchian State -24.5 Wyoming App State
Ohio -2.5 Akron Ohio
Kent State -10.5 Miami (Ohio) Kent 
Iowa state -15.5 Kansas ISU
Michigan State -22 Purdue MSU
U Mass -3 FIU FIU
Northwestern -3.5 Minnesota NW
NC State -4.5 Louisville NC State
Oklahoma -7 West Virginia  OU
Wisconsin -7 Iowa Iowa
Virginia Tech -5.5 Pittsburgh Va. Tech
Texas A&M -6 Mississippi State Aggies
UCF -3 Tulane Tulane
Western Kentucky -7.5 Rice WKU
Oklahoma State -8 Kansas State K State
Houston -7 Tulsa Houston
UCLA -13.5 Arizona State UCLA
Stanford -14 Arizona Arizona
TCU -15 Texas TCU
Navy -5.5 Air Force Navy
Georgia -2 Alabama Alabama
Ole Miss -7 Florida Rebels
Duke -6.5 Boston College Duke
Nebraska -6.5 Illinois Huskers
Ohio State -21 Indiana Buckeyes
Northern Illinois -3 Central Michigan NIU
Baylor -17 Texas Tech Tech
Boise State -24.5 Hawaii UH
Oregon -8 Colorado Ducks
California -18.5 Washington State Cal
Auburn -20.5 San Jose State Auburn
Arkansas State -20 Idaho Ark State
Louisiana Tech -18 UL-Lafayette La. Tech
Vanderbilt PK M. Tennessee MTSU
Missouri -1.5 South Carolina SC
LSU -44.5 Eastern Michigan LSU
Marshall -18.5 Old Dominion ODU
Tennessee -6.5 Arkansas Vols
East Carolina -5 SMU ECU
Southern Miss -16 North Texas USM
Troy -5.5 South Alabama Troy
Georgia Southern -6 UL-Monroe GSU
Florida State -19.5 Wake Forest FSU
Michigan -15 Maryland Michigan
Utah State -4.5 Colorado State CSU
Notre Dame PK Clemson ND
New Mexico -12.5 New Mexico State UNM
Nevada -6.5 UNLV Nevada
San Diego State -8.5 Fresno State SDSU

Games of the Week and Picks (FBS and FCS)

Games of the Week: Week 5
Here are all of our Games of the Week for Week 5, plus our entire straight up picks for the week in FBS and FCS football:

Ohio State at Indiana
There is no doubt that Ohio State should win this game this week, but they have hardly been playing their best football. Indiana has been barely scraping by, but are they good enough to upset the Buckeyes? Are they seriously a solid 4-0 football team?
Pick: Ohio State W

Ole Miss at Florida
Florida has improved in every aspect of the game, and kept Tennessee under their thumb last weekend. Ole Miss received a huge upset scare at the hands of Vanderbilt. Both are ranked, and the Rebels are heading to the swamp to solidify their place at the top of the SEC heap. Something tells me the Gators will want to have a say in that.
Pick: Ole Miss L

Notre Dame at Clemson
The Irish have not traveled to Death Valley since 1979, and Joe Montana was the QB then. Clemson is trying to get young QB DeShawn Watson running in the right direction, while we still await DeShone Kizer’s first trip away from South Bend. This should be one of the better matchups of the week.
Pick: Notre Dame L

Alabama at Georgia
The Bulldogs have had an easy run of things lately in the SEC East. They have not been challenged by a fairly week schedule this season, but the Tide is rolling in as a team on the ropes, and when Nick Saban is on the ropes, that is usually not a good thing.
Pick: Alabama W

Mississippi State at Texas A&M
Both squads are trying to stay in the race in the SEC West, but they both look like teams that are kind of just holding on. MSU only has Dak Prescott and a solid defense, while Texas A&M will try that defense, and will use their defense as a serious weapon.
Pick: Texas A&M W

West Virginia at Oklahoma
The Mountaineers have been a surprising team after a 3-0 start, but the schedule has not been against a killer lineup. Oklahoma finally looks like a team that can take off with QB Baker Mayfield. Both teams will let loose on offense, so expect a huge amount of fireworks to take place.
Pick: Oklahoma W

Iowa at Wisconsin
The Badgers have been skidding by through a 3-1 mark, but Iowa is coming to town on a very nice streak. Wisconsin could finally be exposed, as many are wondering why Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Iowa at this point. This could be Kirk Ferentz’s best team in a decade at Iowa.
Pick: Iowa W

Northern Iowa at Illinois State
Neither team has an FCS loss this season, so we are looking at a top tier Missouri Valley game early in the season. The winner establishes themselves as a major playoff contender, the loser is on the ropes.
Pick: Illinois State W

North Dakota at Portland State
Both teams are off to surprising starts with wins over FBS teams, and are playing at the top of their games now. The winner gets an edge in Big Sky play, and the loser risks sliding into a funk. This is a must win for both sides.
Pick: Portland State L

North Dakota State at South Dakota State
This is the game of the week in any division. SDSU is a usurper, coming up to steal the crown that NDSU has owned for a good long time. NDSU is wounded a bit, looking to keep their crown despite some bleeding. At the end of it, expect a war to be fought.
Pick: South Dakota State L

Here are our straight up winner picks for the rest of FBS and FCS football heading into the week as we add to my record of 417-96: (494-125)
FBS Picks
Miami at Cincinnati Miami L
Memphis at USF Memphis W
Temple at Charlotte Temple W
BYU at U Conn BYU W
Purdue at Michigan State Michigan St. W
Texas at TCU TCU W
Texas Tech at Baylor Baylor W
Arizona State at UCLA UCLA L
Eastern Michigan at LSU LSU W
Florida State at Wake Forest Florida State W
Minnesota at Northwestern NW W
Arizona at Stanford Stanford W
Kansas State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma St W
Michigan at Maryland Michigan  W
Washington State at California California W
Kansas at Iowa State Iowa State W
Houston at Tulsa Tulsa L
Army at Penn State Penn State W
Missouri at South Carolina S. Carolina L
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech  Virginia Tech L
UCF at Tulane Tulane W
Louisville at NC State NC State L
Ohio at Akron Ohio W
Toledo at Ball State Toledo W
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan NIU L
FIU at U Mass U Mass W
Boston College at Duke Duke W
Liberty at Georgia State Liberty W
Wyoming at Appalachian State App State W
Old Dominion at Marshall Marshall W
North Carolina at Georgia Tech Ga. Tech L
Miami (Ohio) at Kent State Kent State W
Air Force at Navy Navy W
Bowling Green at Buffalo BGSU W
Western Kentucky at Rice WKU W
Nebraska at Illinois Nebraska L
San Jose State at Auburn Auburn W
East Carolina at SMU East Carolina W
South Alabama at Troy Troy L
North Texas at Southern Miss S. Miss W
Arkansas at Tennessee Tennessee L
UNLV at Nevada Nevada L
Vanderbilt at M. Tennessee MTSU L
Georgia Southern at UL-Monroe GSU W
UL-Lafayette at Louisiana Tech La. Tech W
Colorado State at Utah State Colorado State L
Idaho at Arkansas State Arkansas St. W
E. Kentucky at Kentucky Kentucky W
New Mexico at New Mexico State UNM W
Oregon at Colorado Oregon
Hawaii at Boise State Boise State
Fresno State at San Diego State SDSU
Lamar at SE Louisiana Lamar L
Alabama State at Texas Southern ASU W
Colgate at Cornell Colgate W
Columbia at Princeton Princeton W
Georgetown at Harvard Harvard W
Southern Utah at Weber State S. Utah W
Stony Brook at James Madison JMU W
Duquesne at C. Conn. State Duquesne W
Robert Morris at Wagner RMU W
Yale at Lehigh Yale W
Valporaiso at Davidson Valpo W
Dayton at Stetson Dayton W
Norfolk State at Howard Norfolk State W
Albany at Holy Cross Albany L
Bryant at Monmouth Bryant L
Jacksonville at Morehead State Jacksonville W
St. Francis at E. Tennessee State SFU W
Bucknell at VMI Bucknell W
Morgan State at Delaware State Delaware St L
North Carolina A&T at Hampton Hampton L
Miss. Valley State at Jacksonville State  JSU W
Faith (FL) at Prairie View Prairie View W
Indiana State at Missouri State Indiana St W
Northwestern State at Incarnate Word IWU W
Youngstown State at South Dakota YSU W
Dartmouth at Penn Dartmouth W
Presbyterian at Western Carolina WCU W
McNeese State at Nicholls State McNeese St W
Elon at New Hampshire UNH W
Maine at Richmond Richmond W
Montana at UC-Davis Montana W
Sam Houston State at Stephen F Austin SHSU W
Marist at San Diego San Diego W
Southern Illinois at Western Illinois WIU W
Bethune-Cookman at NC Central  BC W
Alcorn State at UA-Pine Bluff Alcorn State W
Eastern Illinois at Austin Peay EIU W
Alabama A&M at Coastal Carolina CCU W
Rhode Island at Brown Brown W
Fordham at Lafayette Fordham W
Wofford at Mercer Wofford W
Drake at Campbell Campbell W
South Carolina State at Furman SC State L
Florida A&M at Savannah State FAM L
UT-Martin at Tennessee Tech Tech L
Murray State at SE Missouri State Murray State L
Grambling at Jackson State Grambling W
Abilene Christian at Central Arkansas ACU L
Montana State at Northern Arizona MSU L
William & Mary at Delaware WM L
Faith (Arkansas) at Houston Baptist HBU W
Northern Colorado at Sacramento State Sac State L
Idaho State at Cal Poly Cal Poly W