Thursday, December 20, 2018

What An FBS 24 Team Playoff Would Look Like in 2018

I have long been adamant that a 24 team playoff could work in FBS football, and that the current bowl system is completely and utterly useless. I took it upon myself to create a simulation based on a 24 team model as to who would have made a 24 team playoff in 2018 based on final standings and conference championships. Here are my final 24 teams that would have made this format for this season:

Top 8 teams have a 1st round bye:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma
5. Ohio State
6. UCF
7. Georgia
8. Washington

The top 8 teams are based on the best 8 teams by record, not conference championships. The remaining 16 teams would play 1st round games at campus sites (home stadiums):

9. Michigan
10. Washington State
11. Kentucky
12. Penn State
13. Syracuse
14. Florida
15. West Virginia
16. LSU
17. Texas
18. NC State
19. Fresno State
20. UAB
21. Appalachian State
22. Army
23. Utah
24. Northern Illinois

At this point, the numbers don't mean anything. 1st round match ups are based on the best possible regional pairings rather than seeding, as to spread out representation in the later rounds. Again, top 8 teams would receive a bye. Here are your 1st round matches:

Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Washington State vs. Fresno State
Kentucky vs. UAB
Penn State vs. Army
Syracuse vs. Utah
Florida vs. NC State
West Virginia vs. Appalachian State
LSU vs. Texas

Upon simulations, the second round would figure in with these matches:

Alabama vs. West Virginia
Clemson vs. Penn State
Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
Oklahoma vs. Kentucky
Ohio State vs. Texas
UCF vs. Florida
Georgia vs. Washington State
Washington vs. Michigan

Quaterfinals ended up simulating to these matches:

Alabama vs. Michigan
Clemson vs. Florida
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Oklahoma vs. Georgia

Semifinals simulated to these matches:

Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Clemson vs. Ohio State

Finals simulated to: Alabama vs. Ohio State

Our simulated champion ended up as : Alabama

As is the case, seeds rated 2 or higher win titles in every division well above 95% of the time, even in expanded playoff settings. This is an example of that for those who complain about giving access to teams outside of the top 4 or 8 teams, as that argument against including a wider panel is just ludicrous.

Why should you consider this system? My team and I have been simulating every season based on a 24 team playoff format since 1985. The system always looks the same in the end, with a top 4 seed generally winning the championship by simulations over 97% of the time. That hardly ever changes.

I await your comments in the comment section below. I will only accept legitimate questions or comments. People wanting to troll can do so elsewhere.

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