Thursday, March 9, 2017

2017 NFL Draft Profile: Patrick Mahomes III

Patrick Mahomes III, Texas Tech
6-3, 219
Mahomes is a polarizing player across the board. He spent two and a half seasons as the starter for the Red Raiders, playing in a primarily pass happy offense. He is 12-13 in two full seasons as a starter, and shared half a season with Davis Webb as a freshman before Webb transferred to California. As a freshman, playing part time, Mahomes completed 56.8% of his passes, and passed for 1547 yards with 16 TDs and four INTs. As a sophomore, Mahomes was the full time starter, and passed for 4653 yards, with 36 TDs and 15 INTs. He completed 63.5% of his passes on 44.1 attempts per game, and averaged 357.9 yards per game. As a junior, He passed for 5052 yards, 41 TDs, and 10 INTs. He averaged 49.3 attempts per game, and completed a career high 65.7% of his passes. He added a career high 12 rushing TDs as well.
The Good
Mahomes has the size that scouts seem to value. He can use his size to hang tough in the pocket and make the great throws, as he is able to do, or he has the athleticism to move out of the pocket and deliver on the run. He really came around as a runner in his junior season, when he ran for 12 scores. He sells play action very well, and uses his eyes to draw off defenders.
His accuracy improved each season, and he seemingly grew much more confident every season. He has a leading man swagger, but is not arrogant. He understands how to put touch on a football, or fire it like a cannon when hitting tight zone creases.
He seems to have a solid understanding of the game.
The Bad
Mahomes is the epitome of a "system guy". It's hard to translate where he will be as a rookie, because his entire understanding of the game is about to change. He is a shotgun only passer who has never had to work from under center, and needs to learn how to run in a huddle up system that balances out between pass and run. He has always played in a no huddle, hyper fast tempo, and has never had to really manage a game beyond quick decision passing.
He is also not a winner. He won just 12 games while losing 13 as a full time starter, and the team got worse around him as time wore on.
Although he shows an understanding of what is happening around him, he is too prone to going for the big fish and huge play rather than allowing the game to flow around him, and seems prone to breaking down into a playground mentality., as the offense he comes from tends to do.
He will also take off too soon, as he is trying to show his running skills, even if he does not have to.
As a former pitcher, he winds up a bit too much when making throws, which telegraphs intent to toss deep. This bad habit also allows more balls to sail on him.
He has also never developed a throwing angle that he goes to consistently. He is all over the place with his delivery.
Final Overview
Mahomes is simply a very raw, very unrefined QB in a refined league when it comes to expectations from QBs. He is simply not ready to be a front line starter in this league, and grades are all over the place on him, depending on whom you speak with. He comes from Texas Tech, a school familiar with big number QBs, but which is also familiar with their QBs flaming out as pros before they ever get their feet on the ground. Not one Tech QB in the modern era has ever made it in the league, and that is saying something. Unless he gets some serious coaching, like Brett Hundley did at Green Bay, he is not going to make it.

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