Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Bilo's College Football PASS/FAIL Conference Title Chase Reports: Mountain West

Mountain: Wyoming, Boise State, New Mexico, Colorado State

Wyoming is holding onto a very tenuous position at the top of the Mountain Division. The Cowboys have a one game lead over both Boise State and New Mexico, and they hold a two game lead over Colorado State. The Cowboys should be heavily favored over UNLV this week, but then there are two perilous games against San Diego State at home, and then New Mexico on the road on 11/26. Wyoming will not likely be favored to beat SDSU, and New Mexico could punce on that in the finale to steal some ground.
Boise State has lost to Wyoming this season, and so they need Wyoming to lose both games against SDSU and New Mexico to take back the title in the division. The Broncos have the virtue of having beaten both Colorado State and New Mexico, but they are in this frustrating position based on losing by a safety to the Cowboys. Boise State should be favored in each of their final three games against Hawaii, UNLV, and Air Force.
New Mexico has that Boise State loss, and can gain breathing room against Colorado State on 11/19. Utah State is on the slate this week, and this is a game that the Lobos should win. Should the Lobos and Wyoming both win out, the season finale on 11/26 would be that divisional title game.
Colorado State needs some serious help, and could be eliminated this week when they travel to Air Force. After that, the Rams get New Mexico and San Diego State, and that seems too large a mountain to climb.

West: San Diego State
The race is over in West, as San Diego State has locked up a division title and a spot in the MWC title game. They still have some say in who can win that race, however, as after they play Nevada, they get games against both Wyoming and Colorado State to wrap up the regular season, and with wins on both games, San Diego State could dictate that they play Boise State or New Mexico in that title game rather than Wyoming.

Bowl Eligible: Wyoming, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State
Bowl Ineligible: San Jose State, Fresno State

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