Thursday, May 5, 2016

Analyzing the NFL Draft: 4th Round

As the draft devolved into the three ring circus in the 3rd round, some teams started making up for it in the 4th. This was the round where the most work had been put in, and some serious value was found here.

The Good

4(99) Brown: Joe Schobert, OLB, Wisconsin
Not the most talented or athletic LB in the draft, but Schobert is a workhorse who will bring some toughness to the Browns defense. He may likely get his shots early on special teams, but he could very well work his way into the rotation.

4(102) Chargers: Josh Perry, OLB, Ohio State
If the Chargers were going for help against the run, Perry is their guy. His only issue is that he is fairly weak against the pass, so he could be a 2 down LB at best. Still, he is loaded on toughness, can hit like a missile, and will stuff the run.

4(103) Jaguars: Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame
Day is not an every down guy, but if you are looking for pressure up the middle on 3rd down, the undersized Day can get at the QB. He is a situational player, but he fits well here. The Jags got a nice dime package rusher here.

4(103) Ravens: Tavon Young, CB, Temple
He may come out of camp as the number three CB for the Ravens, and he should play extensively in dime packages. He lacks size, but he is a player on the ball, and he will fight for floaters. He should be a nice fit.

4(106) Chiefs: Eric Murray, CB, Minnesota
It was a hit and miss round for KC. Murray will not start right away, but look for him in coverage against slot receivers early on as he adjusts to the league. He is a strong cover guy inside, and is solid against the run, but he's not ready for the big boys on the outside, and may never be. Still a solid package player in passing downs.

4(107) Ravens: Chris Moore, WR, Cincinnati
Moore gives Joe Flacco a vertical passing threat that he desperately needs. Bad thing is he doesn't do much else right now. He will be a project, but speed is always good. Again, a victim of running in a spread offense, he is all playground, not playbook.

4(110) Rams: Tyler Higbee, TE, Western Kentucky
Higbee had some issues with the law after being drafted. He also missed a huge chunk of the season, and postseason, with a knee injury. If healthy and legally clear, he could be the most dynamic TE in this draft and will be an instant threat in the Rams passing attack. If the knee is problematic, and he can't get a hold of emotions, we have a mess. I love the potential, as his issues are fixable.

4(108) Buccaneers: Ryan Smith, CB, North Carolina Central
Smith has excellent speed, and plays the football very well. Tampa had a need at CB, and may have some holes there after the 2017 free agent class settles out. This is an insurance pick for losses next year.

4(109) Giants: BJ Goodson, LB, Clemson
Goodson is a solid 2 down LB who is tough against the run and loves to hit people. His drawback is that he is not a cover guy at all. His best work is in the trenches, but the Giants needed a guy like that.

4(111) Lions: Miles Killebrew, SS, Southern Utah
SUU is building a nice program in Cedar City, and Killebrew is just one more player that could have some decent success out of there. He is a tackling machine, and may even see time at LB in passing downs. His real value early on will be on special teams, where he could have the kind of career that Matt Slater has had in New England.

4(113) Bears: Nick Kwiatkoski, LB, West Virginia
Kwiatkowski is a hard nosed, hard hitting LB that will fit in very well with the Chicago persona. He could very well turn into a fan favorite on special teams. He has limitations outside of special teams, and may be a a bit over bulked by too much work in the weight room, but he adds value at LB, and the Bears need it.

The Rest
De'Vondre Campbell, OLB, Vikings...Gamer with instincts
Hassan Ridgeway, DT, Colts...Will plug middle, solid run stuffer
Juston Burris, CB, Jets...Solid coverage guy, will make the plays
Tyler Ervin, RB, Texans...Super productive, was under radar on bad team
David Onyemata, DT, Saints...Canadien prospect with size and talent
Willie Beavers, OT, Vikings...Will start in year 2, develop in 2016
Andrew Billings, NT, Bengals...Young, but very talented run stuffer
Antonio Morrison, LB, Colts...Football player who doesn't test well. Just plays the game.
Deiondre' Hall, CB, Bears...Small school guy who can cover outside. 
Evan Boehm, C, Cardinals...Underrated lineman who may surprise some
Alex Lewis, OT, Ravens...Mauler on the outside who needs some time, could start one day
Blake Martinez, LB, Packers...Intelligent and tough, just like Green Bay like them
Willie Henry, DT, Ravens...May be one of the biggest gems out there in middle rounds
Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens...Super utility guy with skills all over field
Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos...fits perfectly into Bronco RB rotation role, not flashy, just good
Dean Lowry, DE, Packers...Underrated and undervalued...could play right away
Seth DeValve, TE, Browns...WR at Princeton, size in slot, TE spot and ball skills are superb

The Bad

4(101) Cowboys: Charles Tapper, DE, Oklahoma
All reports have me doubting that Tapper will even make the team out of training camp. He has an incomplete motor, and is one of the most up and down players to come out of Oklahoma in a while. He does not have the overall talent, or productivity, to grade as a solid pick here.

4(105) Chiefs: Parker Ehringer, OT, Cincinnati
He is not quick or athletic enough to play tackle. He lacks functional strength and fundamentals to be a guard. What's not to like?

4(112) Patriots: Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia
The Patriots made several strange picks in this draft, and Mitchell is another. He has a serious injury history, is an average, at best athlete, and will be 24 as a rookie. He has a ton of physical baggage, even though he is fundamentally sound as a player. His mind is good, but the body is shot.

4(114) Browns: Ricardo Luis, WR, Auburn
Played in option heavy offense, likely 2 years away from real productivity. There were others that were more productive and ready.

The Rest
Jerald Hawkins, OT, Steelers...All over the place, and not ready to play
Deon Bush, FS, Bears...Super slow for a DB, and is all over the place
Derrick Kindred, S, TCU...Does not seem to cover well, and may not be good enough anywhere
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys...DUI before draft shows lack of commitment, also a system QB

The Truly Ugly

4(100) Raiders: Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
I would not have analyzed this pick so harshly had it gone to any other team. Cook dies not fit with the Raiders on any level. Matt McGloin would likely beat him out in training camp, and don't stop to think that a veteran could be signed outside of that to compete. Cook also has some personality issues to deal with, and may never be the leader he needs to be without serious self analyzing happening. He's not as nasty as Ryan Leaf was, but he has the same self aggrandizing nature that Leaf had. Physically, he is what you look for in a QB. In every other way, not so much.

The Rest
Pharoh Cooper, WR, Rams...Injured when he was needed most, didn't rush to get back
Rashard Robinson, CB, 49ers...Severe character concerns overshadow on field ability
Cardale Jones, QB, Bills...Character concerns, poor skill sets, dumb as a rock

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