Sunday, April 17, 2016

2016 NFL Draft: Top Ten Quarterbacks Broken Down

With the NFL Draft fast approaching, I thought I'd take some time to quickly break down the top ten players at every position in a quick, easy to read format, as to get my thoughts across on each of these prospects without having you taking all day to read. I will begin with the top ten QBs for 2016...

Carson Wentz, North Dakota State
Everyone has fallen in love with Wentz as he rocketed up most big boards all the way to the top spot in the draft now occupied by the LA Rams. Here' the thing...I don't think that Wentz is ready to be drafted as a number one overall, or even in the top 15 or 20 in the draft. That would mean that Wentz is ready to step in and become in impact player now. As much as I do respect his skills, Wentz is not ready to be that guy. Wentz may be that guy in a few years, but right now, he is a guy who is coming out of an FCS program (championships aside), that plays a lower level of competition, and played all of his home games in a dome. There has not been an impact ready FCS QB in the draft since Steve McNair, and Wentz is not McNair. Any team drafting Wentz higher in the first round may just be dooming him to a career that could get lost on a bad team. He deserves a better fate.
Where he's likely to go: #1 overall
Where he should go: Early 2nd round

Jared Goff, California
Goff and Wentz have been neck and neck during the scouting process leading up to this draft, but as the case is with Wentz, I have some serious issues with Goff as well. Goff is a system QB, and doesn't know the meaning of "playing under center". He has lived his life out of the shotgun, and so will basically have to be reworked into a QB that can play in a more conservative and standardized NFL system. Another issue is that he is a big guy, but he isn't a "big" guy. He is lanky, and is not necessarily the kind of guy who buys time in a pocket. Cal got better in each of his seasons there, but he has still never won a huge game in his career. That is concerning as well. A QB being selected as high as Goff is likely to be should have a well rounded career behind him in college, and I do not feel that Goff has ever had that.
Where he's likely to go: Top 5
Where he should go: Late 1st round

Paxton Lynch, Memphis
Lynch is probably more game ready than Goff or Wentz from a perspective of size, arm strength, and an ability to win big games against high level opponents. Lynch is a big guy, but isn't scrawny, like Goff. He has wins against SEC level opponents, and was part of a revolutionary change in program history, unlike Goff. Lynch can move in the pocket and change a play with his feet, unlike Goff. Lynch's main problem is that is also more of a system QB, having played a majority of his snaps in shotgun mode. He will have to be retrained to learn the NFL game and its tempo. That fact aside, he seems to me to be more of a game ready prospect than either Wentz or Goff.
Where he's likely to go: Mid 1st round
Where he should go: Mid 1st round

Connor Cook, Michigan State
Cook is probably the most game ready in the NFL of the entire QB class, but where he falls short in the eyes of NFL personnel people is that he is not flashy. Let me be as clear as I can be...flashy is incredibly overrated. Everyone falls for that garbage, which is why we get saddled with RG3 and Johnny Manziel. Cook is a solid game managing QB who can make some solid throws, minimize mistakes, and win football games. He is what a QB in the league should be all about. He has the size, the arm, and the edgy persona to be a QB and leader on that next level. His draw back is that he is an edgy guy, but I like that in a QB. He is willing to call guys out and push his teammates to the next level, and I am enamored by that quality in a kid coming out of college. Many don't have that, or can't develop that.
Where he's likely to go: Early 2nd round
Where he should go: Mid 1st round

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
Prescott is a guy who had been gaining in popularity, but he showed his first major character flaw at the wrong time, getting busted for a DUI in recent weeks, before the draft. That is not stepping up and being a leader and a high level character guy that NFL teams should be looking for. That being said, many NFL teams aren't smart. Rather, they are stupid organizations run by not entirely smart people all the time. That being said, team personnel guys fall in love with the flash of a guy like Prescott. Sure, he's a big, strong guy. He can run like the wind. He has an arm. All that may be true, but he is also erratic. He comes from a system that is not entirely like anything you will see on an NFL field. RG3 was a better passer, but Prescott compares to him in certain ways, and we see how well that has worked out. Prescott models for me as a decent college QB on an overachieving team who's skill level ends there. Not a fan of his prospective pro career as it projects forward.
Where he's likely to go: Late 1st round, or early second round
Where he should go: 5th round as a developmental type QB

Cardale Jones, Ohio State
That Jones is listed as a top ten QB in this draft is strictly an indictment on how bad QB play has gotten in college and pro football over the years. Jones is a bowl full of mush between the ears, pure and simple. He's the kind of guy who believes that the world owes him something. He has all of three major games under his belt as a starting QB, and that is it. Sure, they were big games, but that is not a resume that I, for one, would be drafting off of. Jones believed that he went to school to play football, and not actually go to class. What's he going to do when he has to apply himself on the next level, and actually work? This guy is going to be a problem for someone. If it were my team, I'd just hope it wasn't mine. I don't like dumb players, and this guy is as dumb as they come.
Where he's likely to go: 3rd round
Where he should go: Undrafted

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
That Hackenberg is a top ten QB in this draft class is a travesty. His best games were against San Diego State, Indiana, Illinois, and Buffalo last season. My grandma could have had great games against those teams. Hackenberg is a hack. He blamed his coaches for his bad play during combine interviews. His accuracy is just pure garbage. His attitude is pure garbage. His game is pure garbage. That anyone is even considering drafting him just goes to show you how dumb so very many NFL personnel people are these days. If I found out my team was about to draft this guy, I'd find a way to cut the phone lines in the war room, or jam the transmission somehow. As I said last week on Twitter, Hackenberg is not an NFL QB, he's a statue holding a football. Zero talent here.
Where he's likely to go: 4th round
Where he should go: Nowhere near an NFL franchise. Totally undraftable.

Jacoby Brissett, NC State
Brissett is not nearly ready to play on any level of the NFL, but he is, however, an excellent candidate for a developmental project for a few years down the road. Brissett was lost at Florida, but as he showed after transferring to Raleigh, he really came around in so very many ways. He did not have a perfect combine, but nobody did. Brissett is the kind of player that could get with e avery good QB coach in the NFL (like Brett Hundley with Alex Van Pelt at Green Bay) that could rebuild him and rework his flaws. If that happens, Brissett is a total steal in this draft in the right spot.
Where he's likely to go: 5th round
Where he should go: 5th round, maybe 6th...the lower he goes, the better the steal.

Kevin Hogan, Stanford
Hogan was good for Stanford in the post Andrew Luck years, as he did not allow the Cardinal to step too far back. Hogan was, for all accounts, a decent, game managing QB for Stanford, who could make a few plays with his feet, and make some decent throws. In my opinion, we have seen all we will ever see from Hogan. Hogan will never be the kind of QB that can lead an NFL franchise, and his skills were baselined as a decent college QB who has not the skills or abilities necessary to succeed on the next level. He is ok, but he is not nearly good enough to be considered as anything special.
Where he is likely to go: 6th round...maybe 7th
Where he should go: Undrafted

Brandon Allen, Arkansas
Allen was an average QB until he blew up in his senior season, but his numbers were severely inflated by two OT games against Auburn and Ole Miss (which is why I hate and detest the college OT rule/model). Allen tossed 30 TDs last fall to just 8 picks, but don't get fooled or sold by those numbers. Where you should really look is early last season before Arkansas pulled themselves together, especially the loss to Toledo at home, where Allen was a mere mortal, at best. Allen will likely get a shot somewhere, but he is not an impact guy.
Where he is likely to go: 7th round
Where he should go: Undrafted

The Next Ten

Nate Sudfeld, Indiana...Injuries derailed him. That's why he slides so low, as he cannot stay on the field.

Vernon Adams, Oregon...Another injury prone guy in 2015. Aside from that, his skills do not translate to the pro game.

Cody Kessler, USC...If you asked me a year ago, I'd have said he was a good prospect. Undersized, but he can play. Worth a late round flyer.

Jacob Coker, Alabama...He has no value in the pros. Very average college QB.

Matt Johnson, Bowling Green...System guy with a decent arm. System QBs rarely make it.

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky...2 time All-Bilo FBS QB of the Year, but that is what he was...a legendary college QB who does not translate as next level material.

Jeff Driskell, Louisiana Tech...Driskell was horrible at Florida, but then again, name a Gator QB that wasn't under Will Muschamp (read that line a few times South Carolina). He transferred to Louisiana Tech, but that is a system offense that is not complicated, and is basically playground in nature. Driskell has size, arm, and IQ going for him, but his overall tenacity is lacking. He may not have good enough huddle presence to make it on the next level, and may have trouble moving forward. Some teams like him, but I am not sure whom.

Travis Wilson, Utah...Erratic at best, horrible at worst. Wilson has been all things, good and bad. Not worth the trouble.

Trevone Boykin, TCU...If being arrested in a bar fight and assaulting an officer days before your bowl game are good charcter traits, I don't know what's bad. Priorities are obviously a mess despite good numbers. Good college player, but nothing more.

Jake Ruddock, Michigan...Made strides at Michigan in one season after transferring, but his career is likely done.

Next...Top Ten Running Backs

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