Thursday, August 20, 2015

College Football 2015: Opening Point Spreads

Here's a look at the opening lines from the Westgate Las Vegas Sports Book:

South Carolina -2.5 North Carolina
Oklahoma State -22 Central Michigan
Utah -5.5 Michigan
TCU -14.5 Minnesota
Duke -9.5 Tulane
Ohio -9 Idaho
Arizona -31.5 UTSA
Vanderbilt -1.5 Western Kentucky

Breakdown: If I were laying money today, I would certainly look away from South Carolina in the opener and go with UNC as the dog. It wouldn't surprise me if UNC ended up the favorite before it's done.
UCF and 17 seems to be a bit much for a team with so many questions. Wait for it to drop, or leave it alone at this point.
Oklahoma State is a road favorite by 22, and I don't think it's crazy to think they can cover that.
Utah has several questions as well, but they beat Michigan last season, so I'd be brave with the 5.5 points at home.
I am all over TCU and the 14.5 over Minnesota after TCU rolled up the Gophers 31-0 last season.
I'm not sure about Duke this early, especially with 9.5. I would be pulled to stay away from this one.
Ohio and 9 seems a bargain over Idaho right now. Roll with the Bobcats on the road.
Arizona has a loaded number at 31.5 over UTSA, but I feel good about the Wildcats here.
Big win of the Thursday set is Western Kentucky being a 1.5 point dog against Vanderbilt. I am rolling with WKU in this one without even thinking.

Colorado -7.5 Hawaii
Baylor -35 SMU
Georgia State -5.5 Charlotte
Michigan State -19 Western Michigan
Illinois -15 Kent State
Boise State -10.5 Washington

Breakdown: Colorado looks like an improved football team, and Hawaii is not. Look for the Buffaloes to cover the 7.5, but I'd prefer that it get under 7.
I think that Baylor should cover the 35 against SMU, and could cover that in the first half.
I really don't know what to think about Georgia State as the 5.5 point favorite against Charlotte. I'd avoid it as a weird play right now, but could be swayed in a couple of weeks.
Michigan State should cover the 19 with WMU, but only if they focus and don't look past the Broncos, which could happen.
Illinois should cover that 15 against Kent State, and it may be the only time I say that all season.
Washington is not good. Boise State should be. I like Boise and the 10.5 at home.

Old Dominion -6.5 Eastern Michigan: I love ODU in this one. Easy pick.
Florida -37 New Mexico State: I'd just avoid this one. Not sure if Gators could score 37.
Penn State -7 Temple: This one is a gift. I really like Penn State here.
Tulsa -7 FAU: I am staying away from this one. Don't know what Tulsa will be this season.
UCLA -17 Virginia: Bruins struggled last fall in opener with Wahoos. Likely won't this time.
Stanford -12 Northwestern: Stanford may not be great this season, but should get this done.
Auburn -11.5 Louisville: Good test for Tigers, but Louisville is not in their league right now.
Texas A&M -3 Arizona State: I would have taken this at 7 for the Aggies. Run with it.
Nebraska -6 BYU: This is a tough one for me. If I had to go with it today, I'd go with the dog.
NC State -26 Troy: Troy will be improved, but NCSU may role here.
Northern Illinois -21 UNLV: NIU should handle this one at home. Easy pick here.
Oklahoma -30.5 Akron: OU here. Not even an issue.
Tennessee -21.5 Bowling Green: I'm not sold on Vols. Looking at BGSU to cover this.
Georgia -34.5 UL-Monroe: I am going crazy I guess, as I'd go with ULM to cover.
Kentucky -16.5 UL-Lafayette: I like UK this season, but not this much. ULL to cover.
Arkansas -32 UTEP: Love the Razorbacks in this one. Easy pick for me.
West Virginia -20 Georgia Southern: I love GSU as the dog here. Not impressed with WVU.
Notre Dame -9 Texas: I'm just fine with Irish as favorite here.
Florida State -30 Texas State: Do you have to ask? FSU is an easy go here.
Alabama -10.5 Wisconsin: Even with no QB lined up yet, Bama is the better bet here.
Mississippi State -23.5 Southern Miss: The Bulldogs should coast in this opener.
USC -28.5 Arkansas State: USC is such an easy pick here. This could go up 3 more and it'd be ok.

Look for my updates leading up to the opener as the spreads shift.

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