Monday, September 2, 2013

Buy, Pass, Sell: 2013 Edition 2

Over the last two weeks, I have posted on which college football programs I have chosen to Buy, Pass, or Sell on for the 2013 season. Over the course of the season, I will update how these investments are paying out on a weekly basis. By the end of September, I will be forced to choose from the "Pass category, whether to Buy or Sell the teams in that grouping. I will be using our PRS Rankings formula to update weekly, with the exception of this week, as the rankings are delayed until Tuesday due to Monday's Florida State-Pittsburgh game.


Notre Dame: Great investment this week, as the Irish cruised by Temple 28-6. (1-0)

Sun Belt
Western Kentucky: Another solid buy, as the Toppers took care of Kentucky away from home. 2-0
UL-Lafayette: Cajuns screwed me this week, falling flat at Arkansas. 2-1
UL-Monroe: WarHawks fell apart at Oklahoma, but this is a long term investment. 2-2

South Carolina: Took Care of business at home against UNC. Tough one coming up. 3-2
Georgia: Dropped a close one at Clemson, but it was expected. 3-3
Vanderbilt: Tough home loss to Ole Miss. Dores have me worried. 3-4
Alabama: Easiest buy ever. Crushed Va. Tech. 4-4
LSU: Tigers won a tough one on the road against TCU. 5-4
Ole Miss: The Rebels won big on the road against fellow buy Vandy. 6-4

Stanford: Did not play.
Oregon: Cruised Easily. Shocking. 7-4
Oregon State: Riley should be on hot seat after falling to EWU. Holding off for now. 7-5
UCLA: Bruins stomped all over Nevada, outscored Pack 41-7 in second half. 8-5
Arizona State: Did not play.

Boise State: Broncos got destroyed on the road against Washington. Thanks for that. 8-6
Utah State: Aggies had their chances to take down Utes, but fell short. 8-7
Fresno State: Bulldogs almost screwed me...almost. 9-7

Ohio: Never thought that the Bobcats would beat Louisville, but showing up would be nice. 9-8
Northern Illinois: Huskies were my pick of the day over Iowa, and they delivered! 10-8
Toledo: Had a decent showing on the road defensively against Florida. That was it. 10-9

Conference USA
East Carolina: No D against Old Dominion, but a win is a win. 11-9
Middle Tennessee: Raiders cruised over FCS Catamounts. I'll take any win this week. 12-9
Tulsa: Golden Hurricane was more like a shower. Disaster at Bowling Green. 12-10
Rice: Looked great early, terrible later on. Not a great week. 12-11

Big 12
Oklahoma State: Not a lot of offense, but the defense was stout. 13-11
Baylor: The Bears crushed Wofford. One of the hottest teams back to last season. 14-11
TCU: Really played tough against LSU. Better things ahead. 14-12

Big 10
Ohio State: Buffalo hung around. Not worried. 15-12
Michigan: Crushed C. Michigan at home, as expected. 16-12
Nebraska: Huskers never could pull away from Wyoming. D is worrisome. 17-12
Northwestern: Wildcats got a big road win. Looked good late. 18-12
Wisconsin: Badgers were favored by 45, beat UMass 45-0. 19-12

Clemson: The Tigers got a huge win against Georgia. Program is pumped up. 20-12
Florida State: Plays Pitt Monday night.

Louisville: Absolutely crushed a solid Ohio team, and Bridgewater is legit Heisman candidate. 21-12

Total W/L record is 21-12 on my buys, with FSU-Pitt still to come. I will update with PRS numbers tomorrow night!


Navy: Did not play
BYU: Fell to UVA on the road, and the offense was a mess. Leaning towards selling. 0-1

Sun Belt
Arkansas State and Troy both won this weekend, but ASU beat up on SWAC member Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Still, at 2-0 with this group, I could buy on both. I'll wait another week, as I tend to be conservative on investments.

Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M (4-0, 6-1 overall)
All four won, but Arkansas and A&M looked best doing it. Florida's offense looked slow, and Tennessee crushed Austin Peay, which is like crushing a middle school program. In another week, I could be buying A&M and Arkansas, but holding on pass on the other two. Check back in a week.

Washington, Arizona (2-0, 8-1 overall)
The Huskies were much more impressive in their 38-6 beat down over Boise State, who never should have been a top 10 team anywhere coming into 2013. Arizona was solid, but not great in a 35-0 win over Big Sky member Nor(3-0thern Arizona. Still, Washington is a team that makes me wary of a letdown. Waiting another week to commit either way to either school.

Mountain West
Air Force, San Diego State, San Jose State (2-1, 10-2 overall)
Air Force took care of Patriot League member Colgate, and San Jose State handled Sacramento State of the Big Sky. I am not moving in any direction on these two. I am, however, making a move in this group this week, as I am OFFICIALLY SELLING San Diego State after a massively humiliating loss to Ohio Valley member Eastern Illinois at home.
SELL: San Diego State

Bowling Green, Kent State, Ball State (3-0, 13-2 overall)
Bowling Green looked solid in a 34-7 trashing of Tulsa. I will go out on a limb and I am OFFICIALLY BUYING Bowling Green for the remainder of the season. That locks me into the Falcons for the rest of the year. Kent State looks troubled, especially if Dri Archer's injury is long term. Ball State looked clumsy against Illinois State, so I will sit them out a little longer.
BUY: Bowling Green

Conference USA
Marshall, UAB, Louisiana Tech (1-2, 14-4 overall)
Marshall trashed Miami (Ohio), but that's not enough for me. UAB fell to Troy, while Louisiana Tech is in full rebuild mode after a thrashing against NC State. I am leaving Marshall alone for the time being, but I am OFFICIALLY SELLING On Tech and UAB after what I saw this weekend.
SELL: Louisiana tech, UAB

Big 12
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State (3-1, 17-5 overall)
Texas and Oklahoma struggled early before pulling away in their respective games, so I am staying on pass mode for a bit. Texas Tech had a solid win over SMU, but how good or bad is SMU? Kansas State had a major loss to North Dakota State, but NDSU is a big time FCS program, and this is the kind of loss that can wake a program up. I am staying put on all four.

Big 10
Penn State, Michigan State (2-0, 19-5 overall)
Both teams won, but in unimpressive fashion. I will stand pat for now on passing.

NC State, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina (2-2, 21-7 overall)
The Wolf Pack and Hurricanes had solid enough wins, but against weaker programs. That being said, I felt good enough about Miami to pull Golden off of the Hot Seat for a bit. Tech and Carolina were both a mess against much superior opponents. Staying on pass, but could be selling Carolina and Tech in a week or so.

Rutgers, Cincinnati, UCF (2-1, 23-8 overall)
The Bearcats and Knights rolled up against teams that they should have rolled up on. I need to see more in the way of a test for both. Rutgers has no defense, having lost 51-50 to Fresno State. Still, the conference is weak, so I need to see more on Rutgers as well.

Pass Totals: 23-8 overall. Buying in on Bowling Green, selling on San Diego State, Louisiana Tech, and UAB.


Army, Idaho, New Mexico State (1-2, 1-2 overall)
Idaho and NMSU are easy sells, and combined to score 13 points this weekend. Army had an easy win over MEAC member Morgan State. Happy with these sell offs.

Sun Belt (1-2, 2-4 overall)
Texas State, South Alabama, Georgia State
While Texas State picked up a decent win over a terrible Southern Miss club, USA and GSU fell to FCS schools. These sells are safe.

Missouri, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State (2-2, 4-6 overall)
The Tigers got a win over an FCS school, while Auburn struggled to fend off rebuilding Washington State. Kentucky fell to a Sun Belt school, while MSU managed a whopping field goal against an Oklahoma State team not entirely known for defense.

Cal, Washington State, USC, Utah, Colorado (3-2, 7-8 overall)
Cal and Washington State lost games they should have lost, while USC and Colorado won games they should have won. I feel good about selling the group even now, as I don't see continuing success long term for anyone on the list except for Utah.

Mountain West
Wyoming, Colorado State, Nevada, New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii (0-6, 7-14 overall)
Not one team on this sell list won this weekend, with Wyoming having the only realistic shot to do so. New Mexico had a lead, but blew it to UT-San Antonio, who is in only their second year of FBS football. Nailed these sell offs right on the head.

Buffalo, Miami (Ohio), UMass, Akron, C. Michigan, W. Michigan, E. Michigan (1-6, 8-20 overall)
Eastern Michigan got the only win in the crowd of sell offs here this week, and it was an uninspired win over Howard of the MEAC. Again, solid sells here.

Conference USA
Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, UTEP, North Texas, Tulane, UTSA (3-3, 11-23 overall)
UNT, UTSA, and Tulane all picked up wins, but the most impressive win came from UTSA, who came from behind to beat New Mexico on the road. Tulane beat up on SWAC member Jackson State, and UNT handled Idaho, but Idaho is one of the worst programs in the country by far.

Big 12
Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas (1-1, 12-24 overall)
Kansas didn't play, otherwise there would have been another loss to count. West Virginia should have lost to FCS member William & Mary, but Iowa State did exactly that to FCS member Northern Iowa.

Big 10
Minnesota, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois (3-2, 15-26 overall)
The Gophers and Hoosiers got big wins against overmatched teams, even though IU did break an all time single game scoring record against FCS member Indiana State. Illinois struggled to put away FCS member Southern Illinois before holding on late. Iowa choked late, which I predicted they would, and Purdue was a no show.

Maryland, Boston College, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Duke (6-0, 21-26 overall)
Pitt could give the Sell list 22 wins this week, but it's not likely against Florida State. Maryland and Virginia are the only schools on the list to beat FBS programs, with BC, Georgia Tech, and Duke beating FCS programs. BC should have lost to Villanova and trailed at the half.

UConn, SMU, USF, Temple, Memphis, Houston (1-4, 22-30 overall)
UConn and USF lost to FCS members Towson and McNeese State respectively, with USF giving up 31 points in the second quarter to McNeese State. At least SMU and Temple lost to respectable programs. Houston beat a SWAC team, and Memphis didn't play.

Final Totals:

BUY: 21-12
PASS: 23-8
SELL: 22-30

This Week's Moves: Buy Bowling Green. Sell San Diego State, Louisiana Tech, and UAB.

Buy, Pass, Sell 2013 Edition 3 will release on Tuesday, September 10th!

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