Sunday, November 13, 2011

FCS Playoff Projections Who's In and Who's Out Updated 11/13

With one full week of FCS college football left on the slate, lets take a look at who looks to be in the playoff picture, and who appears to be out. This is our updated version, reflecting games played on 11/12/11.

Big Sky
In: Montana State, Montana
Bubble: Portland State
The Bobcats and Grizzlies are both a lock regardless of what happens when they meet next Saturday. MSU was ranked 3rd last week (new rankings for PRS FCS released tonight) and Montana was ranked 11th. Both figure prominantly into the playoff plans. Portland State is on the bubble. They have the overall record, but two of their wins came against lower classification opponents in Willamette and Southern Oregon. That could cost them their bid, as they will not have 7 wins against FCS opponents.

Big South
In: Liberty or Stony Brook
Bubble: None
They play this weekend, and only the winner gets the bid. Stony Brook started out slowly this seson, but the schedule was brutal early on. With road trips to UTEP and Buffalo. Liberty looks strong again, but remember that they collapsed at the end of the season last year to lose the bid. Redemption time is at hand.

In: Towson, Maine, Old Dominion, New Hampshire
Bubble: James Madison, Delaware
Towson is the shocking favorite to win the CAA this fall after piling up solid wins along the way. Maine, ODU, and UNH are all basically locks, but ODU had the easiest road of any of them with wins over Campbell and Georgia State in their resume. JMU and Delaware will both need wins to be considered, and at the end of the day, there may only be a spot for one of them, if either one of them at all.

Great West
In: None
North Dakota would finish tied for first with Cal Poly, however, UND lost to Cal Poly 23-19 during the season. Cal Poly is not strong enough to merit an at large bid, and UND has wins against Black Hills State and Montana-Western. Not going to happen in the conference's final season.

Does not participate.

In: Norfolk State
Bubble: Florida A&M, Bethune-Cookman, South Carolina State
Norfolk State has won the MEAC, and their season is complete. Last season, the MEAC got two bids, and that could potentially happen again. A&M defeated SC State by 3, but plays Bethune-Cookman this weekend for what could be a spot. Bethune-Cookman lost to SC State, so a win would be highly necessary this week, in conjunction with an SC State loss. SC State is only 6-4, but two of their losses came against Indiana and Central Michigan. A second bid is not a gurantee, but it is possible.

Missouri Valley
In: North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State
Bubble: Indiana State, Youngstown State
NDSU ran as our #1 ranked team in the PRS for most of the season before ceding that spot to Sam Houston State. They may have mailed it in last Saturday in their loss to Youngstown State, figuring that they had the spot locked up. Northern Iowa is a stable pick as the 2 seed out of the MVC, while Illinois State looks like a strong possibility as a lock as well.
Indiana State started out strong, but now sits at 6-4 and needs help. Remember, one of their losses was to Penn State. Youngstown also needs help, and needs to win this week as well, but they boast that win over NDSU as a solid chip in pitching themselves for an at large spot with 7 wins.

Patriot League
In: Lehigh
Bubble: None
It was win it or lose it when Lehigh battkled Georgetown last Saturday, as the winner got the one bid from the PL. Lehigh dominated, and Gtown is home for the holidays. The Mountain Hawks simply await their opponent.

Pioneer League
In: None
Bubble: Jacksonville
It's really not likely that JU will make it this year if they didn't go last season with a 10-1 record. The Dolphins are the only option if the FCS considers the PFL, being that Drake has wins over two lower classifications, as does San Diego. USD can get over the top by defeating Jacksonville, and has already beaten Drake, but it's not likely. JU has no wins outside of classification, but lost their two toughest games against Western Illinois and Citadel, with neither of those schools posting a winning record this season.

In: Albany
Bubble: Duquesne
Duquesne is unrealistic here, but has a solid record for mentioning. Albany has already clinched at least a share of the NEC, and they have already defeated the Dukes this season. The Great Danes are winners of 7 of their last 8 games.

Ohio Valley
In: Tennessee Tech
Bubble: Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville State
Tech has beaten both EKU and JSU, but only plays ten games this season, and has a win over Maryville College. That being said, they are in control for the OVC auto bid, which may mean that the other two are out, which without wins this weekend, will happen anyway as they both sit at 6-4.

In: Georgia Southern, Wofford, Appalachian State
Bubble: Furman,  Samford
Samford is a real stretch here to get the at large with just 7 wins, as if Furman has seven, they are just more attractive with wins over Wofford and App. State. GSU is a certain lock as they have closed out SoCon play with one loss. Wofford is solid for an at large, as is ASU. Four bids could totally happen here, but Furman must win next weekend to be considered.

In: Sam Houston State
Bubble: Central Arkansas
The Bearcats have locked up the SLC title, and they did it with relative ease this season. UCA is on the bubbe, but they have the record to look attractive to the committee, as two of their three losses came to Louisiana Tech and Arkansas State. One win came over D2 Henderson State, but they have compensated with other wins. The Bears have won 7 straight heading into the postseason, as their regular season is complete.

Does not participate

In: None
Bubble: None
Nobody will likely qualify to be considered.

1 comment:

  1. Just so you know Albany has not clinched a share of the NEC title. If Albany loses, Duquesne is the out right champion. Both teams are 6-1 in confernece play with Duquesne's loss coming againat Albany and Albany to Bryant. You should get your facts right.