Tuesday, November 2, 2010

FCS Playoff Projections

Based on the PRS numbers, the following teams should be in the FCS playoffs this season. Let's take a look at the conferences:

Big Sky
Eastern Washington: In the lead right now. Solidly in shape for an at-large birth.
Montana State: A tie with EWU would go to the Bobcats by virtue of a 30-7 win. Also a solid at large candidate as of this moment. Another loss would knock them to the bubble.
Montana: The PRS has them out right now. They need to win out against Montana State and North Dakota.
Weber State: Out as of now.

Big South
Liberty: Needs to win out, or get Stony Brook to lose. Stony Brook is in the season finale at home.
Stony Brook: Needs to win out, including a win over Liberty. Not good for an at large.

William & Mary: A solid in right now, even if they should fall to UNH this weekend. Win out, and the Tribe wins the auto birth.
Delaware: The Hens are also a solid in at this moment. They can still win the Colonial, but they need some help.
Villanova: Also solid right now. They are the defending champs. They cannot afford to lose again, though.
New Hampshire: After some early struggles, they are coming back. A win over the Tribe could get them in.
UMass: Out right now.

Bethune-Cookman: Needs to say screw the Legacy Bowl and take a shot at the FCS. The Wildcats are for real. IN!!!
South Carolina State: I cannot see the FCS taking 2 from the MEAC. SC State does rank #19 in the PRS, and would be deserving. They are probably out.
Hampton: The Pirates are still alive, but need to win out and beat Bethune-Cookman. A loss and they are out.

Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa: UNI is in the lead, but needs to stay there to qualify. They fall far short of where they need to be in the PRS to make it without winning the conference.
Western Illinois: Hanging on by a thread. At this time, would be one of the last 3 in.
Indiana State: Out
North Dakota State: On the fringe, but way back in the MVC. Out right now, but if they go on a run to close out...

The winner between Robert Morris and Central Connecticut this weekend will tell us who is in. Neither will get an at large look.

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State and Southeast Missouri should both get in right now. Nobody else has a shot.

If Lehigh beats Holy Cross this weekend, then the Mountain Hawks will loc up the title. Holy Cross would have the edge with the upset. No at large births here.

There is no auto birth here, but Jacksonville deserves the birth. The Dolphins lead the nation in total offense and points scored. This team has done everything that they should, and they rank #5 in the PRS.
Sadly, Dayton also deserves a bid, but will not get one.

Appalachian State and Wofford are in right now without a doubt. Chattanooga fell to the bubble, and is probably off after losing to Elon.

Stephen F. Austin should be in, but was a lock before falling apart in the 4th against Texas State. They need to win out now to stay in. One more loss would bounce them out of the conference title, and their PRS number would fall under #20. They are #16 right now.

They normally do not send a team, and have not since 1997, but Grambling is highly qulaified at this point, and has some star power in Frank Warren at RB. Jackson State is on the fringe, but would be out right now.

Here is a breakdown of the top 20 in...

1. Jacksonville State, 2. Appalchian State, 3. Bethune-Cookman, 4. Southeast Missouri State, 5. Jacksonville, 6. Wofford, 7. Grambling, 8. Robert Morris, 9. William & Mary, 10. Villanova, 11. Delaware, 12. Eastern Washington, 13. Liberty, 14. Montana State, 15. Stephen F. Austin, 16. Northern Iowa, 17. Western Illinois, 18. Lehigh, 19. Southern Utah, 20. New Hampshire

Closing In
North Dakota State, Chattanooga, Montana, UMass, Central Connecticut State, Dayton

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