Monday, November 15, 2010

FBS PRS (Power Ratings System) Edition 11

We're another week closer to the Bowl Games in the FBS. Nothing much changed at the top this week with the exception of Utah going into a free fall at the wrong time. Everything is starting to shape up, and tomorrow I'll be looking at teams that are on the "eligibowl" list, and I'll start to break down where everyone should be lining up. Let's take a look at this week's standings.

1. TCU (11-0, 2576)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #1, Defeated #23 San Diego State 40-35
Points Gained: 245
This Week: at New Mexico
The Horned Frogs got a huge scare from SDSU this week, but maybe it was a good thing, as TCU got a jolt to keep themselves focused heading into the final game of the season. A win should make TCU a lock to bust into the BCS.
I Pick: TCU

2. Oregon (10-0, 2473)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #2, Defeated California 15-13
Points Gained: 217
This Week: #30, Arizona
The Ducks also received a huge scare on the road this week, barely surviving the Cal upset bid. The Ducks are hoping that Cal's defensive gameplan won't be able to be used by stronger opponents such as Arizona this coming week. Oregon looks strong enough to survive.
I Pick: Oregon

3. Auburn (10-0, 2406)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #3, Defeated Georgia 49-31
Points Gained: 217
This Week: Idle
The Tigers will fall this week as they are idle leading into their showdown with Alabama. It matters not what happens against the Tide, as Auburn has already punched their ticket to the SEC title game to play South Carolina. The Tigers did risk everything by playing Cam Newton in the middle of the investigations into improprieties.

4. Boise State (9-0, 2341)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #4, Defeated Idaho 52-14
Points Gained: 290
This Week: Fresno State
The Broncos gained significant ground with a huge win on the road last week. This week will bring the first of two final challenges with the Bulldogs coming to town. You can never turn a blind eye to Fresno State.
I Pick: Boise State

5. Oklahoma State (9-1, 2028)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #7, Defeated Texas 33-16
Points Gained: 250
This Week: at Kansas
The Cowboys are holding onto the Big 12 South lead like it's a brick of gold (which it is). The Cowboys should push past Kansas with ease this week, but then comes a showdown against the Sooners which should be for all of the marbles.
I Pick: OSU

6. Ohio State (9-1, 2006)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #6, Defeated Penn State 38-14
Points Gained: 212
This Week: at #28 Iowa
The Buckeyes will get one big challenge this week against the inconsistent Hawkeyes. A loss would likely drop the Buckeyes from BCS consideration.
I Pick: OSU

7. Stanford (9-1, 1894)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #9, Defeated Arizona State 17-13
Points Gained: 221
This Week: at California
The Cardinal are the biggest Duck fans in the nation right now. If Stanford can win out, and the Ducks do as well, the PAC-10 would get two teams into the BCS with Stanford likely heading to the Rose Bowl. Cal stands in the way, and that's always an issue.
I Pick: Stanford

8. Nevada (9-1, 1884)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #10, Defeated Fresno State 35-34
Points Gained: 286
This Week: New Mexico State
The Wolfpack just keeps on winning. The only problem is that the system does not favor the WAC. Nevada may be the best team in the worst bowl game ever. Another win should be on the table this week.
I Pick: Nevada

9. Wisconsin (9-1, 1842)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #12, Defeated Indiana 83-20
Points Gained: 299
This Week: at Michigan
The Badgers busted a Big 10 scoring mark in their rout over the Hoosiers this week. They still need a Michigan State loss to get into the Rose Bowl, but they are playing thier best football by far right now.
I Pick: Wisconsin

10. LSU (9-1, 1780)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #13, Defeated UL-Monroe 51-0
Points Gained: 252
This Week: Ole Miss
The Tigers can still pick up a very nice bow bid, and are not out of the BCS race yet. This week won't be much of a challenge against the Rebels, but there is a major showdown looming against Arkansas.
I Pick: LSU

11. Nebraska (9-1, 1744)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #11, Defeated Kansas 20-3
Points Gained: 167
This Week: at #22 Texas A&M
The Huskers are starting to look like a team that's running out of gas. They can't put anyone away, and bad teams are pushing them to the brink. There's trouble in the corn fields.
I Pick: UPSET ALERT!!! Texas A&M

12. Michigan State (9-1, 1743)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #8, Idle
Points Gained: 0
This Week: Purdue
The Spartans have to win to make it to the Rose Bowl. Purdue should provide that opportunity. Definately not the week to have a letdown.
I Pick: MSU

13. Alabama (8-2, 1716)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #14, Defeated Mississippi State 30-10
Points Gained: 250
This Week: Georgia State (Thursday)
The Tide may as well have taken another week off. I have nothing positive to say about this scheduling issue.
I Pick: Alabama

14. Utah (8-2, 1606)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #5, Lost to Notre Dame 28-3
Points Lost: -222
This Week: at San Diego State
The Utes are falling faster than Conan O'Brien's ratings, and have now lost 2 straight. This week is a buzz saw as well, as the Aztecs are unbeatable at home this season.

15. Oklahoma (8-2, 1500)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #15, Defeated Texas Tech 45-7
Points Gained: 233
This Week: at Baylor
The Sooners still have a shot at winning the Big 12 South, but they need 2 big wins, with one coming this week. Luckily, the Bears have hit the wall.
I Pick: OU

16. Arkansas (8-2, 1425)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #16, Defeated UTEP 58-21
Points Gained: 245
This Week: Mississippi State
The Hogs are just hanging around, and although they have had a very good season, they still have lost to both Alabama and Auburn, keeping them from competing for the SEC West. A win over the Bulldogs this weekend will keep them in the New Year's Day bracket. Remember when that actually meant something?
I Pick: Arkansas

17. Virginia Tech (8-2, 1129)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #21, Defeated North Carolina 26-10
Points Gained: 242
This Week: at #27 Miami
Tech has won 8 straight to put them into the ACC title \pciture and they are now in line to play for a BCS bid. A win this week cements the Hokies into that scenario. Miami won't beat a slouch this week.
I Pick: Tech

18. Northern Illinois (8-2, 1311)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #23, Defeated Toledo 65-30
Points Gained: 300
This Week: at Ball State
The Huskies have been a huge turn around story in 2010. They were horrible out of the gate, and now they have been on fire to finish strong. The win over Toledo basically gurantees a spot in the MAC title game.
I Pick: NIU
19. Temple (8-2, 1142)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #17, Idle
Points Gained: 0
This Week: Ohio (Tuesday)
This week will start a two week grind house for the Owls, starting with the Bobcats this week. A win this week will put the Owls in prime shape to win the MAC East, but a showdown with Miami(Ohio) next week would be another obstacle. A loss by Miami(Ohio) this week would be helpful.
A win is a must.
I Pick: Temple

20. Missouri (8-2, 1105)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #26, Defeated Kansas State 48-38
Points Gained: 198
This Week: at Iowa State
The Tigers stopped a 2 game skid by taking out the Wildcats last weekend. Now they have to avoid an upset loss against a pesky Cyclone team that almost knocked out Nebraska. This could be interesting.
I Pick: Missouri

21. USC (7-3, 1077)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #29, Defeated #30 Arizona 24-21
Points Gained: 277
This Week: at Oregon State
The Trojans have had a recent history of disturbing losses in Corvallis. They should shake that this year, as OSU looks more like Jerry Mathers rather than an angry Beaver.
I Pick: USC

22. Texas A&M (7-3, 1029)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: Outside of top 35, Defeated Baylor 42-30
Points Gained: 304
This Week: #11 Nebraska
Few teams are as hot as the Aggies have suddenly become. The Aggies are rolling at the right time, but unless Oklahoma State loses twice, they won't win the Big 12 South with this run. The Aggies are, however, lining themselves up for what could be a very nice bowl, and a win here may guarantee them a spot in a very high profile locale.
I Pick: Texas A&M

23. San Diego State (7-3, 1008)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #18, Lost to #1 TCU 40-35
Points Lost: -120
This Week: #14 Utah
The Aztecs showed the country that they are no pushover anymore. TCU could not shut them down, and the Aztecs lost a very close game in the end. Utah is coming into Qualcomm on a losing streak, and the Aztecs have a shot to punch them in the gut.
I Pick: SDSU

24. South Carolina (7-3, 1008)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #34, Defeated Florida 36-14
Points Gained: 308
This Week: Troy
The Gamecocks are the SEC East champs with the win over the Gators. The Gamecocks will finish the regular season with 2 non-conference games before taking on Auburn in the SEC title game. They should blow Troy out of the building this week.
I Pick: South Carolina

25. Hawaii (7-3, 961)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #24, Idle
Points Gained: 0
This Week: San Jose State
The Rainbows are all out of challenges this season, and should finish the year on a 3 game winning streak as they head into the Hawaii Bowl, where they already have accepted an invite.
I Pick: Hawaii


26. Tulsa (7-3, 953)
27. Miami (7-3, 949)
28. Iowa (7-3, 939)
29. Southern Mississippi (7-3, 894)
30. Arizona (7-3, 865)
31. Central Florida (7-3, 864)
32. Michigan (7-3, 811)
33. NC State (7-3, 810)
34. Maryland (7-3, 808)
35. Florida State (7-3, 788)

Out: Fresno State, Toledo, Ohio, Florida, Mississippi State, Baylor

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