Tuesday, October 26, 2010

FCS (1-AA) PRS (Bilo Football Poll) Edition 8

Another week in the books. We are now on the home stretch heading into the FCS Playoffs. This week, we are going to be shrinking coverage of the poll down here at the report, so that we can spend siginifcant time breaking down playoff and bowl projections. Every school is still ranked in both the FCS and FBS rankings, so if you don't see a specific school, email me at onlinesports05@yahoo.com and just ask, as I'd be more than happy to hear from you.

There has been some movement this week, and as we get closer to the playoffs, we are getting to see who should be in line for a birth, and who should not. We'll start breaking down our looks at who should be in, and who should be out, and some of you may not like the answers, while others will see some light as to how the system may fail some conferences.

For now...enjoy the latest Bilo Power Ranking System results...the Top 35 edition...

1. Jacksonville State (8-0, 1892)
Last week's Ranking/Result: #1, Defeated Austin Peay 56-3
Points Gained: 259
This Week: Idle
The Gamecocks have been in this spot all season long. Appalachian State will get a huge chance to move them out this week, as JSU takes a week off. The Gamecocks will have a fight on their hands for the top spot, and remember, they have not played Southeast Missouri yet.

2. Appalachian State (7-0, 1605)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #3, Defeated Western Carolina 37-14

Points Gained: 260
This Week: #30 Furman
The Mountaineers are number one in all other polls, but JSU has the win over Ole Miss that has carried them all week. ASU will have a fight on their hands this week with the Paladins, but a win should push them closer to overtaking their last frontier to conquer.
I Pick: ASU should battle to a win, and move closer to a SoCon title, but tough games are stillon the horizon.

3. Southeast Missouri State (7-1, 1526)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #4, Defeated Eastern Kentucky 40-21
Points Gained: 209
This Week: UT-Martin
The Scheible and Harris show continues to roll on, and there are only 3 games remaining. Here's the bad news...one of those games is against Southwest Baptist and won't count for much.
I Pick: SEMS...UTM is strictly in a spoiler role right now, but the Redhawks won't be spoiled this week.

4. Bethune-Cookman (7-0, 1522)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #5, Defeated North Carolina Central 23-10
Points Gained: 236
This Week: North Carolina A&T (Thursday)
The Wildcats should pick up another easy win this week, but cannot get caught looking ahead to what should be their final test against Hampton next week.
I Pick: Bethune-Cookman...A&T is one of the worst programs in America right now, and the Aggies won't be able to put up a fight against the high powered Wildcats.

5. Stephen F. Austin (6-1, 1418)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #7, Defeated Sam Houston State 31-28
Points Gained: 234
This Week: Texas State
This is the final challenge on the Lumberjack slate. If SFA wins this game, they should win out for the SOuthland title, and will be an auto entry into the playoffs.
I Pick: Texas State fell to Nicholls State last week, so they are not much of a threat at this point. The Jacks should get an easy one this week.

6. Jacksonville (7-1, 1387)
Last Week's Rank/Result: #8, Defeated Marist 56-10
Points Gained: 248
This Week: at Morehead State
The Dolphins are leading the nation in points scored and total offense. They are in the Pioneer League, which does not have an auto birth. The FCS needs to find a way in for JU if they win out.
I Pick: JU...Dolphins should roll over the Eagles this week on the road, and the remaining schedule is very complimentary.

7. Wofford (6-1, 235)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #11, Defeated Elon 28-21
Points Gained: 235
This Week: Citadel
Wofford should have easy wins this week and next, but the war begins and will take them through the final two weeks of the season with games against Appalachian State and Chattanooga.
I Pick: Wofford...The Terriers have a very good shot at winning their way into the playoffs, but they have to ensure wins this week and next.

8. William & Mary (6-1, 1262)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #13, Defeated Delaware 17-16
Points Gained: 218
This Week: at North Carolina
The Tribe could not have chosen a worse time to play this game against the 1-A Tar Heels. They still control their own destiny in the Colonial after beating Delaware this week.
I Pick: North Carolina...It may not be a rout, but I cannot see the Tribe pulling off the upset this week.

9. Dayton (7-1, 1257)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #12, Defeated Campbell 41-23
Points Gained: 209
This Week: at Davidson
Unfortunately, the Flyers won't play Jacksonville for the Pioneer title. The good news is that the Flyers look to win out from this point on, and the Pioneer League can have two teams go undefeated in league play.
I Pick: Dayton...another easy win.

10. Grambling State (6-1, 1255)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #9, Defeated Mississippi Valley State 35-10
Points Gained: 256
This Week: at Arkansas-Pine Bluff
The Tigers are riding the legs of Frank Warren, as he is coming off of a 209 yard effort in last week's win. This week will be a harder chore, but Grambling is up for the challenge.
I Pick: Grambling...The Lions will be a tough draw this week, but Frank Warren should be able to expose weknesses in their D.

11. Delaware (7-1, 1241)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #2, Lost to #8 William & Mary 17-16
Points Lost: -135
This Week: Towson
This week's game against the Tigers will be their last guaranteed win of the season, and given how the Colonial has beaten up on eachother, this could get tricky.
I Pick: UD...the Hens get a huge win this week, but has to ramp up for a challenging final 2 weeks.

12. Robert Morris (6-1, 1227)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #6, Idle
Points Gained: 0
This Week: Duquesne
The Colonials are well rested coming into this week, and a game that may have seemed like an easy win a week ago, no longer does. These next two weeks should be interesting.
I pick: Robert Morris...This game should be a tight one, as the Dukes are coming back in a late charge.

13. Villanova (5-2, 1049)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #16, Defeated James Madison 14-7
Points Gained: 171
This Week: Richmond
Nova struggled to a win over JMU last week, and although Richmond is out of the picture, they can still bring a nasty surprise. Villanova is in a must win situation this week.
I Pick: Villanova at home...I'd be more worried if this game were away.

14. Pennsylvania (5-1, 991)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #21, Defeated Yale 27-20
Points Gained: 234
This Week: Brown
The Bears are going to be bring a major challenge to Philly this week. Penn has already ousted Yale, and they need to win out or get some help from some others.
I Pick: Penn...The Quakers get the home edge, but Brown will be gunning for the road upset.

15. Montana State (6-2, 970)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #18, Defeated Northern Colorado 37-35
Points Gained: 189
This Week: at Idaho State
There are 3 games left on the docket for the Bobcats, with extremely winnable games coming in the next two weeks. The showdown with Montana will be the monster. Bobcats are very much alive in the playoff hunt, but will need to win out to get a solid shot without having to sweat it out.
I Pick: Montana State

16. Liberty (5-2, 963)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #14, Idle
Points Gained: 0
This Week: at Presbyterian
No worries this week, and the Flames look to have an easy road to the Big South title.
I Pick: Liberty...easily.

17. Eastern Washington (6-2, 930)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #22, Defeated Sacramento State 28-24
Points Gained: 930
This Week: at Portland State
The Eagles have been steadily building this season, and is peaking at the right time. The Eagles need some help with getting someone to beat Montana State, and EWU needs to win out, and they would get the Big Sky auto bid.
I Pick: EWU...should be a tough fight, but EWU was on the right track.

18. Chattanooga (5-2, 929)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #26, Defeated #30 Furman 36-28
Points Gained: 294
This Week: Elon
With 4 games left, the Mocs could end up going 2-2. This week should bring a win against slumping Elon, but then comes Auburn.
I Pick: The Mocs are probably not going to knock off Wofford and get a break to win the SoCon, but right now they would be on the edge for a birth in the playoffs.

19. Hampton (5-2, 919)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #10, Lost to South Carolina State 10-7
Points Gained: -146
This Week: Old Dominion
This game has all of the makings of a nice rivalry. ODU is going to be a tough out this week, and the Pirates need to avoid a loss, as their overall record would not get them into the playoffs.
I Pick: Hampton, but it will be very close.

20. Montana (6-2, 877)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #25, Defeated Northern Arizona 24-21
Points Gained: 227
This Week: at Weber State
The Grizzlies have a prety easy road the next two weeks, but will have a major showdown against rival Montana State. Because of an early season loss to Eastern Washington, the Grizzlies do not control their destiny.
I Pick: Montana...no issues this week or next, but the week after will be war.

21. New Hampshire (5-3, 788)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: Defeated UMass 39-13
Points Gained: 265
This Week: Idle
The Wildcats are pushing their way back into the picture, and will end up dropping down some for taking a late season week off. The schedule will not be forgiving, as the Cats could be dogs in two of their final 3 games.

22. Western Illinois (5-3, 782)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #15, Lost to Missouri State 31-28
Points Lost: -175
This Week: Illinois State
If you had to pick the playoff brackets right now, the Leathernecks would not be in. The loss to the Bears was nearly a disaster, and a loss to the Redbirds would finish it off.
I Pick: WIU...sometimes you have to be desperate to get a big win. Desperation time is now.

23. North Dakota State (5-3, 728)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #30, Defeated Indiana State 27-15
Points Gained: 189
This Week: Southern Illinois
The Bison are out of the running for a playoff birth, and they have just been hanging around all season long. NDSU is not a bad team, but they just got off to a bad start in conference play.
I Pick: NDSU...If they keep winning, they may sneak in at the end, but it may be too little, too late.

24. South Carolina State (5-2, 721)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #32, Defeated #19 Hampton
Points Gained: 213
This Week: at Delaware State
The Hornets pose no threat to the Bulldogs this week. SC State should not lose another game this season in reality.
I Pick: SC State...easy week for the Bulldogs

25. Georgia Southern (4-3, 676)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #34, Defeated Citadel 20-0
Points Gained: 240
This Week: Samford
The Eagles should win this week, but if you break down what's left of the season, a 2-2 split looks realistic. Looking like a playoff miss.
I Pick: Georgia Southern...Eagles won't stick, as consistency has been an issue.


26. Lehigh (5-2, 646)
27. Sam Houston State (4-3, 644)
28. Colgate (4-3, 611)
29. Central Connecticut State (5-2, 597)
30. Furman (4-3, 581)
31. Texas Southern (4-3, 573)
32. Southern Utah (4-4, 568)
33. Prairie View (5-3, 548)
34. Cal Poly (5-3, 543)
35. Northern Arizona (4-3, 520)

Dropped out of Top 35
Yale, UMass, James Madison, Gerogia State

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