Tuesday, September 14, 2010

1-AA PRS (Power Rating System) Poll #2

Welcome back for round 2 of the 1-AA PRS. We recieved quite a bit of buzz last week over the PRS, and I think that some people needed some clarification as to how this works. This is a numbers/points based system.If you noticed that some teams are not ranked that you thought should have been, such as Montana, as they were mentioned, it goes like this. Montana opened up against a lower division opponent. As such, they don't gain any of the major points available, and therefore did not grab enough points to be ranked in the top 35 last week.

To put it simply, you have to earn your points week to week. I don't give anyone anything for free here just because of a name. When Jacksonville defeated Old Dominion last weekend, they did so on the road, which is a huge point gain. they scored 35 points and won by 10. Again, huge point gaines.

The PRS also works in a way that if a 1-AA team plays a 1-A team and loses, they do not get penalized. They will show zero points gained or lost that week. If they beat a 1-A team, than you gain all of the normal points that you would gain from a win, but there is also a major point gain bonus for beating a team from a higher level. This worked for Jacksonville State and North Dakota State last week, and will work for Liberty, South Dakota, James Madison, and Gardner-Webb this week.

I hope that this calrifies things somewhat. I can be contacted at onlinesports05@yahoo.com if you have any questions. Thanks for reading. Here's the week 2 PRS.

1. Liberty Flames (2-0, 568 points)
Last Week: Defeated Ball State 27-23
This Week: @ Robert Morris (1-1)
QB Mike Brown has been a star for the Flames. Brown scored 3 times against the 1-A Cardinals. This week will present a challenge, as Robert Morris pulled an upset win over Sacred Heart last week, knocking the Pioneers out of the top 35 this week.
I pick: Liberty...The Colonials will have to find a way to contain Brown, but until they do, Liberty looks like a road favorite to me.

2. James Madison Dukes (2-0, 565 points)
Last Week: Defeated Virginia Tech 21-16
This Week: Idle
Drew Dudzik scored 3 times on the day, and the Dukes took a mistake prone Hokies squad out at the knees.  The Dukes ran out the final 5:37 of the game to seal the deal. With a rout over Morehead State, and a win over 1-A power Tech, the Dukes are dreaming of a championship run, which they accomplished in 2004 under HC Mickey Matthews.

3. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (2-0, 525 points)
Last Week: Defeated Chattanooga 21-17
This Week: @ Georgia State
The Gamecocks followed their major upset over Ole Miss the previous week with a half hearted effort in a win over Chattanooga. UTC led JSU 10-0 at the half, and 17-7 going into the final quarter. QBs Marques Ivory amd Coty Blanchard each threw for scores in the 4th, and the defense was able to hold off the Mocs to preserve the comeback. JSU heads to Atlanta to take on the startup Panthers this weekend.
I pick: JSU...Georgia State fell to NAIA Lambuth last weekend. JSU should get it together and regain their focus this week.

4. Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-0, 469 points)
Last Week: Defeated Jacksonville 45-14
This Week: North Carolina Central
ASU only led Jacksonville, who was #4 last week, by a 17-14 score into the 3rd quarter, but then the Mountaineers took over and controlled the game from that point forward. ASU struggled for the second week in a row with costly mistakes, but when they got it together, the machine started to churn again. The defense harrassed QB Josh McGregor and RB Rudell Small all day long, with Small only gaining 30 yards on the ground off of 12 carries. NC Central is coming off of a loss to D2 Winston-Salem State, who returned to D2 from the 1-AA MEAC a season ago.
I pick: ASU...NC Central is a not ready for prime time player, and when you go against ASU, you have to be ready for prime time. The Mountaineers should easily go to 3-0.

5. Georgetown Hoyas (2-0, 462)
Last Week: Defeated Lafayette 28-24
This Week: @ Yale
The Hoyas jumped up to the 28-24 lead in the 3rd quarter, and never looked back in what I consider to be an upset in the Patriot League. The Hoyas actually trailed 24-14 at one point, and in what is the thing to do in 1-AA football this season, they came raging back to put it away in the third, with Philip Oladeji's 30 yard scoring scamper providing the final punch. The Hoyas were about to go down again, when they intercepted Ryan O'neill's 6 yard pass in the end zone.
This week, the Hoyas will travel to New Haven to open Yale's 2010 season. This will be the second week of travel for Gtown, so they have to be cautious of exhaustion that could result in lost focus.
I pick: Georgetown...Focus is they key. This is Yale's first game, and after the dramatic win over league power Lafayette, the Hoyas have to be on guard for the letdown. If they avoid the mistakes, than the Hoyas can pull out to a 3-0 start.

6. Alabama State Hornets (2-0, 407)
Last Week: Defeated Arkansas-Pine Bluff 38-31
This Week: @ Prairie View
Devin Dominguez passed for 5 TDs and ASU held on to beat the Lions. The Hornets were down 24-23 in the 3rd quarter, but turned it around with a 15 point effort in the 4th quarter.
This week brings a major challenge with a road trip to play the Prairie View Panthers. We will definately get a good feel for knowing if the Hornets are for real, and if they will be there at the end of the season to win the SWAC.

7. UMass Minutemen (2-0, 386)
Last Week: Defeated Holy Cross 31-7
This Week: @ Michigan
Kyle Havens passed for 293 yards and a pair of scores, and trhe rushing attack accounted for 232 yards and 2 more scores, and the Minutemen plowed Holy Cross under. This week looks like a wash, with a trip to the Big House to take on Michigan. UMass does have an interesting history of being a tough out against 1-A opponents.
I pick: Michigan...The Wolverines will likely never lose to a 1-AA team at home again. UMass will have to bounce back the week after with a tough game at Stony Brook.

8. Duquesne Dukes (2-0, 360)
Last Week: Defeated Dayton 35-31
This Week: @ #24 Delaware
The Dukes won a war for the second week running, as Sean Patterson hit Sean Budevich with an 8 yard score with 21 seconds remaining to knock of Dayton. The Dukes will now have a third major challenge coming up as they travel to take on the Blue Hens, a traditional power in the Colonial. Duquesn has been passing the test, but just barely.
I pick: Delaware...The luck probably runs out this week at Delaware.

9. Gardner-Webb Bulldogs (2-0, 353)
Last Week: Defeated Akron 38-37 (OT)
This Week: Western Carolina
Akron is absolutely horrible, but whenever you go on the road and beat any 1-A team, it's a big deal. The Bulldogs should have an easy path to victory with the Catamounts coming to Boiling Springs this weekend.
I pick: Gardner-Webb...Western is having another rough season, and the Bulldogs will feel obliged to make it worse.

10. South Dakota Coyotes (1-1, 344)
Last Week: Defeated Minnesota 41-38
This Week: NW Oklahoma State
The lofty ranking is the result of completing a split with two 1-A opponents (loss to UCF and win over Minnesota). The win over Minnesota was huge. This week we will see the Coyotes slide back down some, as they stand to gain very little by playing NW Oklahoma.
I pick: USD...The upsetters will not be upset at home.

11. Central Arkansas Bears (2-0, 294)
Last Week: Defeated Eastern Illinois 37-7
This Week: Murray State
The Bears have been a solid contributer ever since joining the 1-AA ranks. They dismantled Eastern Illinois last week, and they should have no problem with the Racers at home this weekend in Conroy. Wynrick Smothers and Terrence Bobo both scored twice for the Bears last weekend. QB Nathan Dick is averaging 259 yards passing per game.
I pick: UCA...Murray State should not be a huge hurdle for the Bears.

12. Villanova Wildcats (1-1, 270)
Last Week: Defeated Lehigh 35-0
This Week: Towson
The Cats rushed for 330 yards on the day, and Villanova bounced back from a tough loss to Temple with a thrashing of the Mountain Hawks. Villanova will should be able to handle Towson, who is coming off of an upset win over Coastal Carolina.
I pick: Villanova...The Wildcats have owned the Tigers in recent years.

13. Jackson State Tigers (2-0, 255)
Last Week: Defeated Tennessee State 33-26
This Week: @ Grambling
Casey Therriault tossed for 4 scores on saturday in the win. A road trip togrambling will test the Tigers to the limits. Grambling played huge D in a 20-6 loss to Louisiana Tech a couple of weeks ago, and so JSU will have to use their openings wisely.
I pick: It seems that the home teams rule in the SWAC, so why not go with the better D and choose the upset. Grambling.

14. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (1-1, 254)
Last Week: Defeated Albany 59-14
This Week: @ Northern Iowa
Jeremy Moses passed for 303 yards in the win over the Great Danes. The task is very difficult this week, as all you have to do is walk into the UNI Dome and steal a win. That's all.
I pick: UNI...The Panthers opened with an awesome defensive effort against North Dakota State. If anyone can shut Moses down, it'll be the Panthers.

15. Portland State Vikings (1-1, 249)
Last Week: Defeated UC-Davis 41-33
This Week:@ Oregon
The Vikngs had to outgun and outshoot Davis last week, but that won't fly in Eugene this week. PSU should slide some next week.
I pick: Oregon

16. Wofford Terriers (1-1, 245)
Last Week: Defeated Charleston Southern 34-23
This Week: Union College
Yet another team that will suffer because they schedule lower level opponents, such as Union. Wofford will drop after playing this non-event game.
I pick: Wofford and the option attack should steamroll Union.

17T. Georgia Southern Eagles (1-1, 243)
Last Week: Lost to Navy 13-7
This Week: @ Coastal Carolina
GSU was offensively incompetent against Navy, but the defense came through and held Navy all day as they waited for the offense to puth them over the top. That help never came. This week should be a little bit easier, as Coastal is coming off of a loss to Towson last weekend. Maybe Coastal got caught napping and looking ahead to this game.
I pick: GSU and their defense should rule the day.

17T. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (1-1, 243)
Last Week: Defeated Murray State 30-17
This Week: @ Southern Illinois
The Hawks had several chances to take down Ball State two weeks ago, and then they got the reeling Racers last week. This week will prove if the Redhawks can be a dominant force as they travel to take on the Salukis, who are coming off of a 35-3 loss to 1-A Illinois on the road.
I pick: The Salukis shattered Southeast last season 42-24. I have to go with Southern Illinois at home.

19. Hampton Pirates (1-1, 241)
Last Week: Defeated Howard 31-21
This Week: North Carolina A&T
The Pirates rebounded nicely after losing the opener to 1-A Central Michigan by taking down Howard. In doing so, the Pirates got a head start on the MEAC by picking up a conference win. NC A&T is not going to be much of an obstacle for the Pirates this weekend.
I pick: Hampton

20. Western Illinois Leathernecks (1-1, 240)
Last Week: Lost to Purdue 31-21
This Week: Sam Houston State
You can never gurantee that WIU would beat a team like Purdue, but they gave it their best shot. The Leathernecks knocked Keith Smith, Purdue's best WR, out of the game with a knee injury, and Robert Marve was very pedestrian at QB against the WIU D. This week, SHSU comes to town to try and avenge a loss to the Leathernecks at home last season. Western's D will rule the day.
I pick: WIU...Western has too much D for the Bearcats.

21. South Carolina State Bulldogs (1-1, 238)
Last Week: Defeated Mississippi Valley State 44-0
This Week: @ Benedict
SC State should not get to comfortable here, as playing Benedict will drop their power ranking when the Bulldogs don't gain the points. This will be a wasted week.
I pick: SC State

22T. Bryant Bulldogs (2-0, 231)
Last Week: Defeated St. Anselm 44-21
This Week: Merrimack
The Bulldogs lasted for 2 weeks in the PRS, which is a first. They will slide down and out next week, as they play their 2nd consecutive D2 opponent this weekend againt the Warriors.
I pick: Bryant...You need to beat the D2 teams now, so that you can learn how to win games and be succesful later. Bryant is still a new 1-AA program.

22T. Samford Bulldogs (1-1, 231)
Last Week: Defeated Northwestern State 19-7
This Week: Newberry
The Bulldogs handed NW State their 13th consecutive loss last weekend. This week, Samford will experience loss, as in their power ranking for playing a D2 opponent.
I pick: Samford

24. Delaware Blue Hens (2-0, 230)
Last Week: Defeated South Dakota State 26-3
This Week: #8 Duquesne
The Blue Hens have outscored their first 2 opponents by a 57-3 margin. They would be ranked much higher had the season not started out against a D2 patsy like West Chester from the PSAC. This week promises to be interesting, as the  Dukes are rolling into Dover looking for that signature win to put on their resume. Delaware will have to control the clock by outting the ball into the hands of Andrew Pierce, much as they did against SDSU last week, when Pierce ran for 165 yards.
I pick: Delaware...The Hens should be able to play clock control football, and the defense should enable Delaware to not allow Duquesne to turn this game into a wild shootout.

25. Furman Paladins (1-0, 225)
Last Week: Defeated Colgate 45-15
This Week: @ South Carolina
The thing that drives me nuts about the 1-AA PRS is that everyone seems to insist playing outside of classification. It happens here again, as there is no way that Furman can steal a win away from Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks.
I pick: South Carolina...Furman will not lose anything here, but won't gain anything but a paycheck.


26. Florida A&M (1-1, 220)
27. New Hampshire (1-1, 213)
28. Southern Utah (1-1, 211)
29. Youngstown State (1-1, 205)
30T. Missouri State (1-1, 203)
30T. Weber State (1-1, 203)
32. Towson (1-1, 199)
33. Cal Poly (1-1, 193)
34. Southeastern Louisiana (1-1, 188)
35. McNeese State (1-1, 183)

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