Tuesday, September 28, 2010

1-AA PRS (Power Rankings System) Poll #4

Welcome to the 4th release of the 2010 Bilo Football Poll (PRS). Good luck to whomever you may be routing for this week. Once again, there were several fluctuations in the top 35. Alabama State plummeted out of the top 25 after falling to Alcorn State 41-21. Florida A&M took a nasty tumble out of the top 35 after falling upset victim to Tennessee State, who had been on a free fall coming into the game. Liberty was another casualty, after falling to #3 James Madison, as was South Dakota after falling to North Dakota State, who moved up to #11 this week. New teams into the top 25 include Alcorn State, Grambling, Yale, Texas State, Dartmouth, and Illinois State.

Here is the Bilo Football Poll for FCS (1-AA) in it's entirety:

 1. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4-0, 999)
Last Week's Ranking/Result:  #1,defeated Eastern Illinois 28-23
Points Gained: 233
This Week: Murray State
JSU is just skating by so far in 2010, and they lead the nation in points on the graces of beating Ole Miss. With OVC play beginning, the Gamecocks will have to pick up their game some.
I pick: JSU

2. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-0, 940)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #2, defeated Samford 35-17
Points Gained: 253
This Week: Elon
DeAndre Presley is driving the offense just fine, and the defense is clicking as well. ASU handled Elon with relative ease in 2009, so they should do so again.
I pick: ASU
3. James Madison Dukes (3-0, 782)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #4, defeated Liberty 10-3
Points Gained: 217
This Week: #8 Delaware
The Dukes had are in a brutal stretch in which they have one outright winnable game (against Towson next week). Eery other week is a coin toss for the foreseeable future. Luckily, they get Delaware at home.
I pick: JMU in a war.
4. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (3-1, 744)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #9, defeated Lamar 71-3
Points Gained: 269
This Week: McNeese State
Since losing the opener to Texas A&M 48-7, the Jacks are averaging 51 points per game and have won 3 straight, including the thumper over the Cardinals last Saturday. QB Jeremy Moses is the star, averaging 298 yards per game and passing for 9 scores.
I pick: SFA...this was a close game last season, but the Lumberjacks are in a position to send a message in the league opener.

5. Delaware Blue Hens (4-0, 739)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #8, defeated Richmond 34-14
Points Gained: 255
This Week: at #3 James Madison
Andrew Pierce rushed for 114 yards in the win over Richmond, and the Hens will need that kind of production and more as they take their second straight brutal road trip to face the Dukes i a battle of top 10 teams. Pierce has rushed for 598 yards this season, and so he is the focal point of the offense. Defensively, the Hens are giving up 4.5 points per game.
I pick: JMU in a low scoring war.

6. Villanova Wildcats (3-1, 733)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #5, defeated Penn 22-10
Points Gained: 184
This Week: at #14 William & Mary
You have to give it to the Colonial, as the Cats are their 3rd entry into the top 10 this week. You also have to feel a bit badly for the Colonial teams as they all have to play each other throughout the season at some point. The Cats have another tough battle looming with a visit to Williamsburg coming up this week. Villanovoa has a balanced offense and a defense that is only giving up a shade less than 6 points per game in 1-AA play (they gave up 31 to Temple).
I pick: Villanova

7. Georgia Southern Eagles (3-1, 708)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #7, defeated Elon 38-21
Points Gained: 205
This Week: #34 Wofford
This week brings an interesting match as these teams were separated by a FG last season. Both teams are giving up points, and both teams are moving the ball as well, with the Eagles moving to a tune of 508 yards against Elon last week. Jaybo Shaw needs a big game this week, as he is the offensive focal point.
I pick: GSU

8. Western Illinois Leathernecks (3-1, 703)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #13, defeated Indiana State 40-7
Points Gained: 223
This Week: at #11 North Dakota State
It doesn't ever seem to be easy in the FCS top 25. Western had an easy time against league doormat ISU last week, but this week raises the stakes with the Bison coming to town. WIU is giving up just 7 points per game in 1-AA play this season, so it will be up to the D to carry the day, along with a solid rushing attack that carried the Leathernecks to the win last week.
I pick: NDSU could be up for the upset if they can contain the run game. Look for a low scoring affair.

9. Southeast Missouri State RedHawks (3-1, 645)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #10, defeated Tennessee Tech 23-21
Points Gained: 175
This Week: at Eastern Illinois
Last Saturday's game was too close for comfort. This week brings a bit of a challenge as Southeast lost to the Panthers at home last season. That should not be the case this week, but the Hawks are looking ripe for an upset.
I pick: Southeast for one more week
10. Youngstown State Penguins (3-1, 641)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #12, defeated Southern Illinois 31-28
Points Gained: 184
This Week: at Missouri State
The key to the game this week will be ball control for the Penguins, and that means handing the ball to Jamaine Cook and Adaris Bellamy, as they are the leading point producers for YSU. Red Zone ball control and turnover creation is what did in SIU last weekend, as the Penguins picked up a come from behind win. The defense will have to be sound this week, as the Bears put up 41 on conference leader Illinois State (not that Illinois State has been very good defensively).
I pick: YSU

11. North Dakota State Bison (3-1, 632)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #17, defeated South Dakota 38-16
Points Gained: 260
This Week: at #8 Western Illinois
NDSU has been a much different team in the last two weeks than they were in the first two weeks. They averaged 7.5 points in the first two weeks, and in the last two they have scored 35.5. The one constant has been the D,as they only allow 11 points per game.
I pick: NDSU in the minor upset.

12. UMass Minutemen (3-1, 617)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #15, defeated Stony Brook 26-21
Points Gained: 231
This Week: at Towson
The Minutemen are for real, and will be considered the dark horse in the Colonial, but they can beat any team on any given Saturday. John Griffin and Jonathon Hernandez both have over 300 yards rushing.
I pick: UMass wins easily this week.

13. Robert Morris Colonials (3-1, 577)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #19, defeated Wagner 30-9
Points Gained: 251
This Week: at St. Francis (PA)
Robert Morris has been on a very nice run since falling to Dayton in the opener. The Colonials have the trinity of offensive producers that a team needs to win regularly in QB Jeff SInclair (10 TDs), RB Myles Russ (108 yards per game rushing and 4 scores), and WR Shadrae King (22 catches and 4 scores). This week should provide a solid win.
I pick: Robert Morris

14. William & Mary Tribe (3-1, 561)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #18, defeated Maine 24-21
Points Gained: 227
This Week: #6 Villanova
The Tribe is coming off of an emotional an emotional last minute come from behind win at Maine last weekend, and now have to face a dominant force in Villanova. The Tribe dropped a 1 point decision last season on the road, so this could be a high wire act. Mike Callahan is averaging 211 yards passing, but his TD/Pick ratio is only 5/3. He'll have to be more effective to try and steal a win this week, and Mike Paulus played in relief last week, although he has been relatively ineffective as well outside of the game winning toss against Maine.
I pick: Villanova
15. Alcorn State Braves (3-0, 529)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #26, defeated Alabama State 41-21
Points Gained: 261
This Week: at Mississippi State
Expect the Braves to lose their first game, and to probably slide out of the top 25 this week, as they travel to Starkville to take on the 1-A Bulldogs. The defense has been carrying the Braves so far, and we'll see if that continues when they get back into 1-AA play.
I pick: Mississippi State

16. Grambling Tigers (2-1, 486)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #36, defeated Prairie View 34-17
Points Gained: 251
This Week: at Alabama A&M
Get the ball into the hands of Frank Warren. That is the key to winning for the Tigers, and he has responded with 488 yards in 3 games. There is no passing game to speak of, so this will have to do. Alabama A&M is a strange team that plays up to better opponents, so this will be an interesting week.
I pick: Grambling...control the clock!!!

17. Yale Bulldogs (2-0, 480)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #33, defeated Cornell 21-7
Points Gained: 235
This Week: Albany
The Bulldogs are cruising out of the gate, and this week should be no problem. I see an easy 3-0 for Yale.
I pick: Yale

18. Montana State Bobcats (3-1, 477)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #25, defeated Eastern Washington 30-7
Points Gained: 203
This Week: at Sacramento State
The Bobcats are sitting at the top of the Big Sky early on, and they did so by dominating EWU last weekend. There seems to be a QB battle brewing between Denarius McGhee and Cody Kempt, as McGhee has struggled some with turnovers, averaging a pick per game. This week will be a tough one, as CSUS has improved a great deal.
I pick: Montana State, but it won't be easy.

19. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (3-0, 472)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #21, defeated Norfolk State 21-7
Points Gained: 185
This Week: at Morgan State
The Cats are only coughing up 8 points per game this season, but the competition has not been great up until last week. With wins over Edward Waters and Savannah State, there has hardly been a push. They get one this week on the road. They should survive though, as the Bears have not really found an offense yet in 2010.
I pick: Bethune-Cookman

20. Georgetown Hoyas (3-1, 469)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #20, defeated Holy Cross 17-7
Points Gained: 177
This Week: at Colgate
The Hoyas are all alone at the top of the Patriot League standings, and should remain there after this week. QB Scott Darby is running the spread very nicely right now, but it's the defense that has been helping the Hoyas to their grind out wins. Georgetown has picked off 6 passes in 4 games.
I pick: Georgetown

21. Central Arkansas (3-1, 466)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #11, lost to Tulsa 41-14
Points Lost: 0 (lost to a 1-A school)
This Week: Northwestern State
Last week was tough, but this week will be much better against the Demons, who have lost 13 of 14 going back to last season.
I pick: UCA

22. Texas State Bobcats (3-1, 450)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #35, defeated Southern Utah 42-28
Points Gained: 206
This Week: IDLE
It was nice to see the Bobcats debut, but they will fall back out next week due to the lack of points being played for with a week off. RBs Karrington Bush and Dexter Imade are carrying the load on offense and QB Tyler Arndt is coming around after a rough start. If the defense gets shored up, then it would be possible to push Stephen F. Austin in Southland play.

23. Hampton Pirates (2-1, 440)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #14, IDLE
Points Gained: 0
This Week: at Delaware State...Thursday
Hampton got a much needed break last week, and now they come back to a nice and tasty cupcake in Delaware State on Thursday night. This should be nice and easy.
I pick: Hampton

24. Dartmouth Big Green (2-0, 439)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #28, defeated Sacred Heart 21-19
Points Gained: 173
This Week: at Penn
The Big Green barely escaped Sacred Heart, as the Pioneers missed a FG with 0:44 seconds left in the game. They will have to be more focused and much more productive to take out Penn in Philly this week.
I pick: UPSET ALERT!!!! Penn wins

25. Illinois State Redbirds (3-1, 432)
Last Week's Ranking/Result: #36, defeated Missouri State 44-41 (OT)
Points Gained: 197
This Week: Southern Illinois
The Redbirds survived the Bears last week, and now have to take on a Saluki team who has their backs against the wall. This should be a raging battle this weekend.
I pick: ISU in a shootout

26. Alabama State (3-1, 429)
27. Furman (2-1, 423)
28. Jacksonville (3-1, 388)
29. Duquesne (3-1, 381)
30. Brown (2-0, 380)
31T. Jackson State (3-1, 305)
31T. Northern Arizona (2-1, 305)
33. Dayton (3-1, 291)
34. Wofford (2-1, 283)
35. South Carolina State (2-1, 279)

36. Florida A&M (2-2, 270)
37. North Dakota (2-2, 265)
38. Cal Poly (3-1, 262)
39. Austin Peay (2-2, 261)
40. Portland State (1-2, 249)
41. New Hampshire (2-2, 237)
42. Liberty (2-2, 230)
43. Weber State (2-2, 194)
44. Northern Colorado (2-2, 147)
45. Chattanooga (2-2, 146)
46. South Dakota (2-2, 122)
47. Morehead State (2-2, 110)
48. Rhode Island (1-2, 104)
49. Old Dominion (2-2, 102)
50. Southern Utah (1-3, 75)
51. Sacramento State (2-2, 67)
52. Bryant (3-1, 55)
53. Tennessee State (2-2, 49)
54. Norfolk State (2-2, 48)
55. Missouri State (1-2, 41)
56. Samford (2-2, 33)
57. Eastern Washington (2-2, 32)
58. Citadel (2-2, 27)
59. Penn (1-1, 22)
60. Sam Houston State (1-2, 18)
61. Colgate (1-2, 16)
62. Harvard (1-1, 11)
63. Morgan State (2-2, -1)
64. Princeton (1-1, -2)
65. Lehigh (2-2, -6)
66. Northern Iowa (1-2, -9)
67T. Columbia (1-1, -10)
67T. Cornell (1-1, -10)
69. Richmond (1-2, -25)
70. SE Louisiana (1-3, -35)
71. Montana (2-2, -44)
72. Central Connecticut State (2-2, -53)
73. Lamar (2-2, -54)
74. Fordham (2-2, -64)
75. McNeese State (1-2, -79)
76. Tennessee Tech (1-3, -88)
77. Murray State (1-3, -89)
78. Coastal Carolina (1-3, -94)
79. St. Francis (PA) (1-2, -95)
80. Maine (1-3, -96)
81. Gardner-Webb (2-2, -99)
82. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-2, -110)
83. Alabama A&M (2-2, -114)
84. UC-Davis (1-3, -125)
85. Indiana State (1-2, -126)
86. VMI (1-2, -153)
87. Charleston Southern (2-2, -164)
88T. Albany (1-2, -169)
88T. Drake (2-2, -169)
90. Nicholls State (1-3, -171)
91. Towson (1-3, -184)
92. North Carolina Central (2-2, -195)
93. Georgia State (2-2, -214)
94T. Marist (1-2, -220)
94T. Prairie View (1-3, -220)
96T. Texas Southern (1-3, -226)
96T. UT-Martin (1-3, -226)
98. Western Carolina (1-3, -237)
99. Wagner (1-2, -242)
100. Southern Illinois (1-3, -244)
101. Southern (1-2, -276)
102. Elon (1-3, -312)
103. Stony Brook (1-3, -340)
104. Eastern Kentucky (0-3, -357)
105. Sacred Heart (1-3, -366)
106. Butler (2-2, -367)
107. Holy Cross (1-3, -373)
108. Northwestern State (1-3, -403)
109. South Dakota State (0-3, -416)
110. Davidson (1-3, -428)
111. Idaho State (1-3, -432)
112. San Diego (1-3, -518)
113. Delaware State (0-3, -528)
114. Lafayette (0-3, -541)
115. Presbyterian (0-4, -548)
116T. Monmouth (0-3, -550)
116T. Bucknell (0-3, -550)
118. Eastern Illinois (0-4, -605)
119. Campbell (1-3, -671)
120. North Carolina A&T (0-4, -778)
121. Howard (0-4, -813)
122. Mississippi Valley State (0-4, -954)
123. Valporaiso (0-4, -1022)
124. Savannah State (0-4, -1157)

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